UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf205565b16eea19d6452a68394bd5946483c98dc32f6460b4841d8ab26b7850
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed Yes | 12c | 4,931$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…7cb2backed Yes | 17c | 2,227$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Yes | 11c | 1,279$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…14ddbacked Yes | 11c | 927.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f9…fc82backed Yes | 11c | 926.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a4…561bbacked Yes | 11c | 865.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a07…04e1backed Yes | 11c | 727.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…3726backed Yes | 16c | 698.32$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Yes | 8c | 617.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Yes | 8c | 602.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…8613backed Yes | 11c | 587.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…186bbacked Yes | 11c | 577.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 78c | 565.95$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…1bd0backed Yes | 13c | 559.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…9629backed Yes | 7c | 557.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a4…5e8fbacked Yes | 8c | 525.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80e…cad8backed Yes | 10c | 492.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…ef34backed Yes | 14c | 471.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b65…9610backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…ecd8backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7889…5765backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa799…100fbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…ed3ebacked Yes | 10c | 442.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d9ecbacked Yes | 11c | 422$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 12c | 386.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…a581backed Yes | 13c | 380$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…c202backed Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa63…d37dbacked Yes | 12c | 345.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260f…6980backed Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…59f4backed Yes | 11c | 306.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3452…0814backed Yes | 11c | 299.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…44febacked Yes | 12c | 295.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 12c | 291.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 10c | 275.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…d415backed Yes | 11c | 270.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 263.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…e528backed Yes | 11c | 263.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c3…ef9fbacked Yes | 11c | 247$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd102…5dd7backed Yes | 11c | 245.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…dd04backed Yes | 14c | 245.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…d38bbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c6…bf20backed Yes | 11c | 227.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Yes | 9c | 222.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf711…eac5backed Yes | 11c | 218.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…5953backed Yes | 12c | 216.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…6c57backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…04e9backed Yes | 10c | 208.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c835backed Yes | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…2751backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…b1a1backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 198$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…9c89backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3844…7285backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa609…eebdbacked Yes | 11c | 177.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…8595backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Yes | 11c | 164$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…e21dbacked Yes | 6c | 155.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…afa4backed Yes | 9c | 149.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…c591backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0a…14fbbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…485abacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…38f8backed Yes | 11c | 133.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Yes | 11c | 130.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3f…e94fbacked Yes | 11c | 127.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da9…e9c7backed Yes | 20c | 125.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…2108backed Yes | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…9e94backed Yes | 13c | 117.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…d6e3backed Yes | 11c | 109.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ca…f810backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…8d9dbacked Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b8…52d6backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…0450backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 13c | 95.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a8…8271backed Yes | 11c | 94.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…0010backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a98…f9d9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…cdf4backed Yes | 21c | 47.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Max Holloway won
- Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.