UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff035cf5c3f70463256404b8babfa41c8540f042b250b4f40aed014349eb3a69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 27c | 3,204$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,324.02 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…bbbcbacked Over | 77c | 1,957$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 30c | 1,027$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b9…7126backed Under | 29c | 843.76$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…1366backed Over | 70c | 714.77$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Over | 76c | 588.16$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 21c | 527.54$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.75 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x378c…14b8backed Under | 30c | 512.55$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Over | 66c | 499.6$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Over | 73c | 481.17$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Under | 26c | 472$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked Under | 29c | 408.05$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Over | 5c | 367.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Under | 30c | 337.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Over | 68c | 308.82$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d8…6e1fbacked Over | 76c | 263.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Under | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Over | 71c | 197$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Under | 29c | 195$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac12…293abacked Over | 76c | 185.63$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Under | 30c | 156$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…0b87backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…768ebacked Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…afc1backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0553…047abacked Over | 69c | 132.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7607…85debacked Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Under | 33c | 115.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Over | 70c | 111.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d6…a011backed Over | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…acd3backed Over | 76c | 105$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d8f5backed Over | 70c | 104.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3655…afe9backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked Under | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed Over | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e4…bf29backed Over | 76c | 96.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Under | 72c | 80.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…111ebacked Over | 76c | 79.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Over | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 71c | 70.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 55c | 67.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Over | 62c | 64.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 71c | 51.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…b95fbacked Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe786…9d92backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af7…0bc4backed Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…b72ebacked Over | 68c | 42.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Over | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7276…182ebacked Over | 76c | 41.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7553…3741backed Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed Over | 69c | 36.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 31c | 34.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Over | 76c | 31.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e633backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…a02abacked Over | 74c | 24.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…ffc9backed Over | 76c | 23.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…b433backed Over | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11d6…e50ebacked Over | 75c | 21.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Max Holloway won
- Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.