TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: eSuba vs Misa Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
eSubaof eSuba, Misa Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$254,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$282,655

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 412 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xddc3…029cbacked Misa Esports58c45,233$26,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,045.0192456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Misa Esports61c18,540$11,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,286.011,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed Misa Esports57c8,127$4,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,665.7324746.2%114 W · 133 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Misa Esports67c7,408$4,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.373652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked eSuba47c7,393$3,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,945.665,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Misa Esports55c7,129$3,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,927.3524551.8%127 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcd…0a69backed Misa Esports51c5,840$2,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,980.19349.5%46 W · 47 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed eSuba35c5,657$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,686.638841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed eSuba33c5,142$1,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,423.1780942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed eSuba50c4,065$2,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.662,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc62…c963backed eSuba41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7701442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2526…218ebacked Misa Esports66c3,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.984973.5%36 W · 13 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked eSuba35c2,960$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,915.037,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked eSuba43c2,902$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.6427940.5%113 W · 166 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked eSuba47c2,821$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.831,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed eSuba39c2,808$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,70119543.6%85 W · 110 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Misa Esports59c2,804$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.822240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed eSuba37c2,700$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,70139245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked eSuba36c2,676$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.72,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed eSuba54c2,661$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.9775438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed eSuba48c2,552$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.841,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked eSuba43c2,500$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.543,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Misa Esports68c2,189$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.3722750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed eSuba34c2,141$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.872,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked Misa Esports55c2,092$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.4675056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked eSuba36c2,053$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.7720045%90 W · 110 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Misa Esports65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30029449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked eSuba43c1,965$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.4463038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked eSuba46c1,923$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.8436440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfb87…a45dbacked Misa Esports63c1,911$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.3930450.7%154 W · 150 L-0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed eSuba50c1,880$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.142,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed eSuba44c1,616$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.412,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Misa Esports50c1,591$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.382,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed eSuba54c1,553$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.3616155.9%90 W · 71 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed eSuba72c1,545$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.8619057.9%110 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Misa Esports33c1,508$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.8326546.8%124 W · 141 L-18.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed Misa Esports70c1,500$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.3415244.7%68 W · 84 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked eSuba41c1,459$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.892,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaac4…73fabacked Misa Esports62c1,442$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Misa Esports57c1,431$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.968047.5%38 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked eSuba40c1,400$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84413354.9%73 W · 60 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Misa Esports55c1,400$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.9961054.9%335 W · 275 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1727…b844backed eSuba32c1,397$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+118.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked eSuba41c1,368$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.162,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Misa Esports14c1,340$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18425944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea97…5ac0backed Misa Esports68c1,277$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.82560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Misa Esports57c1,241$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.0835153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed eSuba32c1,200$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81621945.7%100 W · 119 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed eSuba32c1,200$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81615838%60 W · 98 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed eSuba41c1,196$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.34,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7c…763fbacked Misa Esports52c1,167$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.961566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85ae…5399backed eSuba38c1,161$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.162536%9 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc818…1da3backed eSuba35c1,151$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.698925.8%23 W · 66 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Misa Esports42c1,123$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.6994645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Misa Esports66c1,115$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.0745465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed eSuba50c1,113$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.2812627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Misa Esports66c1,100$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.9835861.7%221 W · 137 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2865…2005backed eSuba74c1,094$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.581788.2%15 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+47.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked eSuba31c1,093$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.423244.8%104 W · 128 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed eSuba35c1,064$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.811,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Misa Esports64c1,059$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.8221953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed eSuba41c1,041$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.51,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked eSuba43c1,038$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.1813760.6%83 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked Misa Esports66c1,005$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.6813371.4%95 W · 38 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed eSuba48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52020743%89 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked eSuba32c999.96$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.978964%57 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed eSuba33c996$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.1428455.6%158 W · 126 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked eSuba39c976.96$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.3566446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0890…c657backed eSuba30c949.98$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.992744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed eSuba48c901.82$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.15,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked eSuba38c901.15$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.0122447.8%107 W · 117 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed Misa Esports56c897.7$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008361.4%51 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed eSuba42c842.56$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.2265546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Misa Esports61c829.99$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.3930349.8%151 W · 152 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed eSuba57c823.52$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.688330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6297…1e59backed eSuba41c820$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.85558.2%32 W · 23 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed eSuba63c817.89$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.162,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed Misa Esports61c772.49$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.9629543.1%127 W · 168 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Misa Esports66c758$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.2817954.2%97 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Misa Esports55c752.73$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41416850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Misa Esports31c741.2$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.194,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked eSuba60c724.92$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.7538032.1%122 W · 258 L-18.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked Misa Esports47c701.15$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.7226554.3%144 W · 121 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Misa Esports67c699.99$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.9968753.9%370 W · 317 L-21.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a80…df6dbacked eSuba57c697.02$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.0210867.6%73 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked eSuba36c693.45$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.9313642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed eSuba45c688.89$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.497742.9%33 W · 44 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfadf…8c2cbacked Misa Esports68c679.97$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.382969%20 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed eSuba32c641.59$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.274136.6%15 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked eSuba33c620.79$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.9334140.8%139 W · 202 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed eSuba36c617.46$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.2455039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked eSuba37c615.11$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.3221536.3%78 W · 137 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed eSuba32c613.38$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.371,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x130b…a733backed Misa Esports66c604.99$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.541457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8776…f2efbacked Misa Esports48c600.56$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29014153.9%76 W · 65 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4806…a6c6backed Misa Esports68c600$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Misa Esports67c599.59$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9399148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8847…fc98backed eSuba38c592.51$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.0524840.7%101 W · 147 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Misa Esports48c572.97$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.0217240.1%69 W · 103 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked eSuba48c545.07$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.694,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.