TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will "Kanye" be said on ICEMAN?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,120

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,735 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes25c238.45$60 inLost-$59.846628.8%19 W · 47 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes23c164.77$38 inLost-$37.582231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes24c114.26$27 inLost-$27.231631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c101$75 inWon+$26.2622640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c92.38$39 inLost-$38.88923.6%21 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes16c87.66$14 inLost-$13.796520%13 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes24c82.78$20 inLost-$19.731926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes42c75.07$32 inLost-$31.53616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.36per pick52cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x89e0…9412backed No75c70$53 inWon+$17.55554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba54…699dbacked No75c66.67$50 inWon+$16.671050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5e…64ddbacked No78c62.4$49 inWon+$13.731450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561b…9b6cbacked No75c60$45 inWon+$15683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick67cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f8f…7946backed Yes23c55.07$13 inLost-$12.67520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-73.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes24c54.81$13 inLost-$13.021637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes23c46.33$11 inLost-$10.662334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No61c40$25 inWon+$15.47742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f38…36c1backed No75c40$30 inWon+$10.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No78c37.05$29 inWon+$8.051668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes35c35.06$12 inLost-$12.373710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid+62.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceae…2f49backed No73c27$20 inWon+$7.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80e7…d3a5backed No76c26$20 inWon+$6.24366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No75c20$15 inWon+$55238.5%20 W · 32 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x257b…d288backed No75c20$15 inWon+$5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick73cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed No74c17.1$13 inWon+$4.45616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-77.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa22…5e49backed No75c15$11 inWon+$3.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x726c…6bfdbacked No78c12.88$10 inWon+$2.846100%6 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.