TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will "Virgil" be said on ICEMAN?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,555
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,555 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa58d…b9b8backed No53c256.38$136 inLost-$136.16628.8%19 W · 47 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c97$47 inWon+$50.4422640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No69c77.15$53 inLost-$53.237842.3%33 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes25c54.31$14 inWon+$40.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-58.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes48c39.23$19 inWon+$20.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39bc…f994backed No76c20$15 inLost-$15.240%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b3b…0353backed No73c18.53$14 inLost-$13.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed No72c16.77$12 inLost-$12.071926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4b9…4d3abacked Yes68c15.38$10 inWon+$4.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.