Music · resolved market
Will "Kawhi" or "Leonard" be said on ICEMAN?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0bcc7ba3f604e2fcfad33526e611ed847c04fcbdb2106eb594c200153a7feba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4b9…4d3abacked Yes | 1c | 5,010$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 28c | 2,985$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 64c | 1,450$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.88 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…c1a7backed No | 74c | 899.99$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085f…4e6ebacked Yes | 28c | 734.28$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 19c | 600.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 24c | 480.79$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a54…4a03backed No | 71c | 466.29$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…9a5ebacked No | 79c | 377.97$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Yes | 65c | 309.87$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6f…b3d2backed Yes | 27c | 243.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked Yes | 30c | 232$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d7…0ffebacked Yes | 27c | 172.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…87b5backed No | 15c | 158.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked Yes | 19c | 152.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 15c | 143.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdde4…7bfdbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…c744backed Yes | 18c | 78.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030f…867abacked Yes | 30c | 76.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf809…e847backed Yes | 49c | 58.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…f36ebacked Yes | 28c | 51.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…3189backed Yes | 69c | 41.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed No | 72c | 31.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeba…7a91backed Yes | 66c | 28.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…7556backed Yes | 42c | 25.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b015backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…1857backed No | 69c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Kawhi" or "Leonard" be said on ICEMAN?this page
- Will "2026" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Armani" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Batman" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Caleb" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Covid" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
- Will "Daddy" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Kanye" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Kendrick" or "Lamar" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "LeBron" or "Bronny" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "No No No" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Nuclear" or "Nuke" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Pinocchio" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Russia" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Six Seven" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Super Bowl" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Toronto" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
- Will "Trump" or "Obama" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Virgil" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.