Music · resolved market
Will "Toronto" be said on ICEMAN?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0071e65fa27524213c60e216078e579b2fcc5accb672a0b0e92715dc2fec525
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 68c | 505.93$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…3051backed Yes | 43c | 487.29$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…87b5backed No | 72c | 277.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked No | 39c | 220.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Yes | 29c | 190.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 53c | 180$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 173.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed No | 64c | 104.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 102$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341f…52bbbacked No | 46c | 97.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 33c | 86.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…699dbacked No | 71c | 70.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…cf4bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed Yes | 55c | 43.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 71c | 40.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…7946backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 33c | 37.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 50c | 37.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 57c | 35.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a54…4a03backed Yes | 53c | 34.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce42…9090backed No | 47c | 33.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…28a1backed Yes | 63c | 30.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 46c | 29.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 45c | 26.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 63c | 26.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…2a26backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked Yes | 75c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Toronto" be said on ICEMAN?this page
- Will "2026" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Armani" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Batman" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Caleb" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Covid" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
- Will "Daddy" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Kanye" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Kawhi" or "Leonard" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Kendrick" or "Lamar" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "LeBron" or "Bronny" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "No No No" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Nuclear" or "Nuke" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Pinocchio" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Russia" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Six Seven" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Super Bowl" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Trump" or "Obama" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Virgil" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.