TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will "Toronto" be said on ICEMAN?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,490 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbae5…45e3backed No68c505.93$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.981747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b14…3051backed Yes43c487.29$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d0…87b5backed No72c277.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+241.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked No39c220.76$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.933151.6%16 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes32c199.99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.992927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed Yes29c190.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.971040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed No53c180$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.21145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No58c173.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.48923.6%21 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed No64c104.84$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.43450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c102$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1422640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x341f…52bbbacked No46c97.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Yes33c86.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.682347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5aa…c200backed Yes25c79.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+155.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba54…699dbacked No71c70.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a46…cf4bbacked Yes41c48.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa9…8b89backed Yes55c43.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.512100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No71c40.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f8f…7946backed No58c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-73.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes33c37.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.325349.1%26 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes50c37.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.881457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+82.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No57c35.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.036710.4%7 W · 60 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a54…4a03backed Yes53c34.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce42…9090backed No47c33.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bcd…28a1backed Yes63c30.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.29475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.324732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes46c29.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.541631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No45c26.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.973710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid+62.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No63c26.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.462673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.91926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06cd…2a26backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdea5…c77bbacked Yes75c18.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.481752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No72c17.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.86540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.