TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$478,997
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$409,085

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $478,997 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 345 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3400…4832backed Yes19c15,362$2,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,925.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d5…c665backed No35c11,651$4,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,627.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No35c11,262$3,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,365.611872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+66.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa3be…39a5backed Yes26c10,000$2,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,556.4530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No18c7,222$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,898.361957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+112.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1189…ab52backed Yes10c6,345$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No26c5,084$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,759.173537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x553a…93c8backed Yes21c4,396$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…b247backed Yes61c4,377$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,650250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked No17c3,600$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,000.191540%6 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a22…17a6backed No12c3,396$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,991.255446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes5c3,390$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8480%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb7…ae9bbacked Yes19c3,381$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed No14c3,358$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,901.252564%16 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No34c3,283$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,168.69933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes7c2,800$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1829613.5%13 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b71…c33ebacked Yes18c2,788$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x444c…9d2ebacked No9c2,389$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.722010%2 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed No15c2,285$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.92633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes32c2,262$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.9826632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8241…e82fbacked Yes20c2,207$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No57c2,159$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.952050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked No12c2,117$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.151435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed No75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No11c2,000$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.858838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes79c2,000$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c1,934$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.4388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93eb…e99ebacked Yes18c1,820$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab5…b148backed Yes28c1,788$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes15c1,756$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.571145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes26c1,729$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No77c1,632$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.1510151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66d2…5fccbacked Yes31c1,590$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01de…a558backed No25c1,587$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+304.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked No18c1,549$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.63933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85eb…d068backed Yes22c1,533$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes21c1,511$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.1217330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked No12c1,499$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.151241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.19per pick23cpaid+54.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No78c1,481$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.917129.6%21 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No79c1,445$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.995332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed No23c1,400$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.793100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+132.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes21c1,357$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.9610038%38 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0248…b880backed Yes19c1,348$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed No13c1,310$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.381127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+62.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No12c1,300$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.582133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No64c1,293$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.32548%12 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes41c1,291$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.4927438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes29c1,285$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.813246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4131…d928backed Yes16c1,234$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes20c1,229$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.27130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c0…4314backed Yes12c1,202$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No11c1,200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.15534.5%19 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes18c1,200$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.63036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-38.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc513…c980backed Yes14c1,185$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No6c1,180$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.62133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2251…25a0backed Yes62c1,156$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.771747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No20c1,060$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.111030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5b…5d41backed No35c1,035$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.31728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbda3…724cbacked No12c1,023$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+378.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes9c1,005$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.482330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed No15c1,000$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46ae…6f63backed Yes22c994.75$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7902…ef0dbacked Yes16c944.49$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2fb…a6a2backed Yes16c904.62$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f53…4bccbacked No77c903.66$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes64c891.68$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.8724637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed No4c887.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.297044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed No17c881.89$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.89728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c852.48$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.751,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f7…87aebacked Yes18c845.95$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ab…a0efbacked No13c830.38$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+641%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No7c803.98$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.311676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d1…daf1backed Yes18c803.75$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2e…8dc6backed Yes30c776.35$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39ab…31f8backed Yes15c748.58$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes31c710.23$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.982025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+284.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b4…ac80backed No36c693.92$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.92520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes21c662.24$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.258354.2%45 W · 38 L+18.2wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+66.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x3fcd…aacfbacked Yes27c660.03$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No25c657.27$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.215558.2%32 W · 23 L+15.2wins+0.28per pick31cpaid+73.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No78c654.06$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.756150.8%31 W · 30 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x207b…c5f0backed No11c650$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.31315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes77c642.87$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.543148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed No60c625.05$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.06666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x575f…9287backed No9c614$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.54540%2 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick9cpaid+201.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ce3…2979backed Yes18c611.83$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5753…fa31backed No7c601.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.511526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid+119.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked No66c601.27$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.472748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes43c595.07$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.0211230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7be…f3ecbacked Yes20c584$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561b…a8d3backed Yes21c579.73$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed No75c569.27$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.72657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf079…ca73backed Yes18c560.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No27c550.04$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.911,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19da…562abacked Yes20c545.01$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e2…81aebacked Yes20c543.09$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed Yes19c539.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.92634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb6b…c8e5backed Yes19c532.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No74c531.8$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.84045%18 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No77c520.23$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.35966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.