World Politics · resolved market
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d529e0abd4eb7c599ddc3ac54b5f0de9d5dd5455e8d83903cd0b5f967be20c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 14c | 436.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 74c | 138.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 135$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…8ea2backed Yes | 20c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 73c | 119.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…c338backed Yes | 27c | 111.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fa87backed Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 104.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…9f54backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…f033backed Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…8a45backed Yes | 35c | 92.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…4da7backed Yes | 36c | 83.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 35c | 75.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…12fcbacked Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…a8d3backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…f701backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…e682backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +195%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d71…08a9backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…39e2backed Yes | 30c | 50.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…88fdbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc513…c980backed Yes | 45c | 47.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 46.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 64c | 43.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495a…f3a7backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c5…91d7backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 21.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 69c | 21.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 21.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643a…522abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +170.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 70c | 19.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6714…fad2backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30?this page
- Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by July 31?No won
- Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.