World Politics · resolved market
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77628bc96a4fdc275c93129edab312795a96f642af043f30a6944232c130b2ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 13c | 2,724$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.13 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…ce76backed Yes | 7c | 2,460$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,721$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,570$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,299$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,089$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.93 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 9c | 949$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 8c | 617.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 5c | 598.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 568.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 525.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 458.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 9c | 449.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 431.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 9c | 316.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 16c | 264.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 256.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…c782backed Yes | 5c | 214.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes | 7c | 210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…f8a5backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 20c | 131.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 102$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Yes | 21c | 87.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 18c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…6a2bbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 17c | 71.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 66.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…7e36backed Yes | 19c | 53.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…f49abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…82fabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +326.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? this page
- U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.