World Politics · resolved market
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cbe75bfd0627891fd1357a206caac995eac01645a50c5284068f52241b70add
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 62c | 12,914$8,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,032.73 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes | 47c | 12,145$5,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,663.03 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 50c | 4,408$2,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.24 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,853$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…bbf0backed No | 40c | 3,506$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…8865backed No | 48c | 2,370$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…a769backed Yes | 51c | 1,969$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x074f…d920backed Yes | 37c | 1,627$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…953abacked Yes | 37c | 1,614$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…855ebacked No | 44c | 1,582$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 44c | 1,551$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.17 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…e845backed Yes | 37c | 1,496$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,408$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.7 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed Yes | 45c | 1,350$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed Yes | 64c | 1,300$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…a17ebacked Yes | 49c | 1,298$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 20cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 46c | 1,297$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.08 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74de…0836backed Yes | 47c | 1,283$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…c6bfbacked Yes | 64c | 1,107$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…641fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,054$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7afa…5494backed Yes | 40c | 1,051$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 47c | 1,038$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 35c | 1,027$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.11 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 1,022$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.12 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 46c | 1,012$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.06 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 32c | 1,011$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 54c | 995.07$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.98 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce6…230ebacked No | 63c | 961$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d2…3fa9backed No | 63c | 953$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e70…8ab0backed No | 63c | 943$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1976…ef24backed No | 63c | 941$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 49c | 939.99$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa035…02c5backed No | 63c | 939$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 35c | 814.24$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.98 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…2a83backed Yes | 47c | 782.14$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d83…4888backed Yes | 53c | 763.12$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0651…c690backed Yes | 50c | 740$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 39c | 707.61$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.19 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 640.19$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.48 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4976…d25cbacked Yes | 33c | 618.65$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 14c | 616.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.3 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 559.37$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.09 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…e998backed No | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…97afbacked Yes | 57c | 523.2$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 52c | 484.73$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.31 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad1…8b6bbacked Yes | 68c | 481.52$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed No | 36c | 453$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…56c9backed Yes | 69c | 443.32$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…e53dbacked Yes | 70c | 430$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed No | 36c | 428$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ad…b913backed Yes | 71c | 420.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 36c | 419$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…71bdbacked No | 36c | 418.09$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 41c | 415$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.66 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed63…d038backed Yes | 36c | 379.71$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 42c | 369.45$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.55 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 6c | 354.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…8641backed Yes | 38c | 352.88$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2666…d969backed No | 55c | 349.22$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +452.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76c…992fbacked No | 40c | 339.94$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 42c | 335.17$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.85 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…73d0backed No | 36c | 334.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +67%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc77e…7c92backed Yes | 30c | 329.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…6b32backed No | 61c | 314.18$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…bc70backed No | 33c | 305.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb44…d3d2backed Yes | 68c | 300$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.24 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…ca15backed Yes | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d2…070cbacked No | 49c | 282.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 45c | 282.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f80…be79backed Yes | 61c | 278.48$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…c113backed Yes | 59c | 277.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…1567backed Yes | 60c | 269.45$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 57c | 253.19$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.51 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…8fc1backed Yes | 64c | 241.76$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…90a8backed Yes | 46c | 237.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…1489backed Yes | 47c | 237.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 43c | 235.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 46c | 235.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…715ebacked Yes | 45c | 222.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 42c | 221.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c9…280bbacked Yes | 49c | 205.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b3…0ca0backed No | 53c | 203.3$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…4cd8backed No | 40c | 202.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed Yes | 51c | 186.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 37c | 178.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.87 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fc…e870backed Yes | 32c | 178.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92c…daa7backed No | 42c | 173.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 47c | 170.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…9603backed Yes | 68c | 168.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfc…0a65backed Yes | 45c | 167.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x208b…9613backed Yes | 48c | 166.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…28b7backed No | 31c | 161.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +224%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37dd…28e0backed Yes | 66c | 157.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1557…8ce7backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…039fbacked Yes | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…c28dbacked No | 29c | 148.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +292.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6613…ae99backed Yes | 48c | 141.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6971backed Yes | 57c | 141.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…f70abacked Yes | 71c | 140.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 54c | 137.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?this page
- Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Guido Eduardo Nayar win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?Yes won
- Will Julio César Tórrez win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Mauricio Quezada win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Miguel Cadima win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Vladimir Peña win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.