TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$595,660
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$587,289

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $595,660 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 399 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d09…e998backed Yes60c16,637$9,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,655.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0efd…1567backed Yes38c10,670$4,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,660.671154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4976…d25cbacked Yes50c8,729$4,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,332.11241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c8,557$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8617921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes27c7,540$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,492.3211349.6%56 W · 57 L+28.4wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+106.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No1c6,014$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0711850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No77c4,880$3,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,755.027436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes18c4,569$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,731.012441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No13c4,321$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.496883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d83…4888backed Yes30c4,188$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.13944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+69.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98b0…43c2backed Yes33c3,998$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,688.9520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x640f…8bcebacked Yes19c3,974$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,223.79520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdad1…8b6bbacked Yes22c3,786$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,942.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0b…855ebacked Yes48c3,630$1,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,876.16862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+38%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0e3…6677backed No2c3,500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803429.4%10 W · 24 L+6.1wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+167.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x338b…63d5backed Yes10c3,105$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+220.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16d2…070cbacked Yes57c3,100$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf24f…cfb7backed No2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602722.2%6 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+152.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82ed…25a4backed No2c2,800$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52560%3 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick8cpaid+699.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes33c2,796$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.258354.2%45 W · 38 L+18.2wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+66.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xb0f4…7bfebacked Yes10c2,794$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,503.42450%2 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+683.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0443…99cfbacked Yes10c2,691$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,412.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+383.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e46…43f0backed Yes10c2,589$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,317.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+377.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b9b…dd57backed Yes13c2,482$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,169.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+296.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2f…e57cbacked Yes13c2,417$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,112.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+693.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No2c2,400$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515135.3%18 W · 33 L+12.4wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+385.3%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x9fb6…0d09backed Yes10c2,387$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+220.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No66c2,379$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.127570.7%53 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45a6…c6dcbacked No10c2,265$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eda…68b3backed Yes13c2,205$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+693.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc5…4cc5backed Yes74c2,171$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+44%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d33…7043backed Yes11c2,085$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+358.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa095…6040backed No1c2,075$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.383060%18 W · 12 L+11.7wins+0.39per pick21cpaid+236.6%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0xfc03…f66fbacked No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202441.7%10 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.30per pick11cpaid+459.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes77c1,950$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.5314947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4750…e7d6backed Yes10c1,886$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+223.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35df…87b2backed Yes10c1,853$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.292100%2 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,571.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdef2…7877backed Yes10c1,830$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.68450%2 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+735.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07a7…3433backed Yes10c1,822$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+220.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe961…8dcabacked No1c1,768$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa56d…1fdebacked Yes10c1,740$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+897.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c46…97eebacked Yes13c1,733$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,514.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+164.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb833…4119backed Yes13c1,731$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+693.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e0…f206backed Yes11c1,675$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+817.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb305…1c2bbacked Yes11c1,654$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+217.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa940…31babacked Yes11c1,643$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+205.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0d…3855backed Yes10c1,612$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick6cpaid+1,014.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeff9…1fe3backed Yes13c1,598$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+693.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30e9…e86cbacked Yes11c1,555$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+817.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66f0…7debbacked Yes10c1,519$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick15cpaid+331.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0476…d8a7backed Yes16c1,518$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.29650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+59.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed No4c1,496$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.822437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc77e…7c92backed Yes23c1,417$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc92c…daa7backed Yes28c1,410$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f9d…464ebacked Yes11c1,410$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick11cpaid+852.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No15c1,387$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.293925.6%10 W · 29 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4630…d2bfbacked Yes11c1,384$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+817.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1e0…3334backed Yes17c1,352$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+194%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4efe…0218backed Yes10c1,337$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.95520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No11c1,325$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.141,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f65…3924backed Yes10c1,311$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+220.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c6e…5563backed Yes45c1,308$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40a1…1b3cbacked Yes73c1,302$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…8e2fbacked Yes10c1,299$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+220.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cfa…b342backed Yes77c1,284$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7099…9b86backed Yes11c1,280$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+376.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5073…144cbacked Yes10c1,272$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick6cpaid+826.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No78c1,253$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.762931%9 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes49c1,250$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6351020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-67.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe896…5aecbacked Yes11c1,232$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick11cpaid+852.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf836…66edbacked Yes79c1,222$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.921060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes25c1,194$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.317526.7%20 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+63.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb76c…992fbacked Yes24c1,192$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes26c1,188$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.7734726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b57…263ebacked Yes80c1,158$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.031241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce7…71bdbacked Yes43c1,148$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.69475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+64.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No52c1,145$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59016343.6%71 W · 92 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No59c1,133$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.0132255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x393d…1e7abacked Yes10c1,128$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+861.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3357…0972backed Yes11c1,108$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+817.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8105…314abacked Yes10c1,090$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+870.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb9…2565backed Yes79c1,068$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4c…caeabacked Yes10c1,067$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+380.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cfc…0a65backed No59c1,050$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3974…cc19backed Yes10c1,034$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+870.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dcf…a152backed Yes17c1,014$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+198.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bc1…ed1bbacked Yes10c1,003$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,311.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef1f…5868backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick11cpaid+160.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3c3…5a0fbacked Yes11c977$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+817.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc319…0e0cbacked Yes28c975$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.51250%6 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+86%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b1b…a122backed Yes64c924.55$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.87862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb92f…c915backed Yes60c923.03$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa4…805ebacked Yes10c902$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+870.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb10…f669backed Yes11c897$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce9…8ce7backed Yes29c882.09$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.09966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+118.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe3eb…43aebacked No15c866.44$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa62…a9cebacked Yes60c835$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba8…97afbacked Yes38c804.46$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Yes29c800$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5702777.8%21 W · 6 L+13.2wins+0.49per pick29cpaid+167.8%equal weight78+0.25 edge/pick
0x3920…b83cbacked Yes18c799.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.