World Politics · resolved market
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1881756420bf29f7cca15fbc7bf6c91af782b82a1c99587b4c229be036de8f6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $595,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $587,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $595,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 399 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d09…e998backed Yes | 60c | 16,637$9,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,655.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…1567backed Yes | 38c | 10,670$4,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,660.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4976…d25cbacked Yes | 50c | 8,729$4,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,332.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 8,557$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.86 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 27c | 7,540$2,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,492.32 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 1c | 6,014$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 77c | 4,880$3,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,755.02 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes | 18c | 4,569$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,731.01 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 13c | 4,321$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.49 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d83…4888backed Yes | 30c | 4,188$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,926.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98b0…43c2backed Yes | 33c | 3,998$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…8bcebacked Yes | 19c | 3,974$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,223.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad1…8b6bbacked Yes | 22c | 3,786$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,942.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…855ebacked Yes | 48c | 3,630$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 2c | 3,500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…63d5backed Yes | 10c | 3,105$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,782.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d2…070cbacked Yes | 57c | 3,100$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…25a4backed No | 2c | 2,800$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 8cpaid | +699.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 33c | 2,796$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.25 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…7bfebacked Yes | 10c | 2,794$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,503.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +683.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…99cfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,691$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,412.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +383.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…43f0backed Yes | 10c | 2,589$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,317.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +377.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9b…dd57backed Yes | 13c | 2,482$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2f…e57cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,417$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +693.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 2c | 2,400$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +12.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +385.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb6…0d09backed Yes | 10c | 2,387$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 66c | 2,379$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.12 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45a6…c6dcbacked No | 10c | 2,265$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eda…68b3backed Yes | 13c | 2,205$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +693.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc5…4cc5backed Yes | 74c | 2,171$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d33…7043backed Yes | 11c | 2,085$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +358.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 1c | 2,075$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +11.7wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.30per pick | 11cpaid | +459.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 77c | 1,950$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.53 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4750…e7d6backed Yes | 10c | 1,886$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +223.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35df…87b2backed Yes | 10c | 1,853$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,571.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdef2…7877backed Yes | 10c | 1,830$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +735.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07a7…3433backed Yes | 10c | 1,822$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…8dcabacked No | 1c | 1,768$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…1fdebacked Yes | 10c | 1,740$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +897.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c46…97eebacked Yes | 13c | 1,733$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb833…4119backed Yes | 13c | 1,731$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +693.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…f206backed Yes | 11c | 1,675$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +817.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…1c2bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,654$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa940…31babacked Yes | 11c | 1,643$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…3855backed Yes | 10c | 1,612$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 6cpaid | +1,014.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…1fe3backed Yes | 13c | 1,598$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +693.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e9…e86cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,555$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +817.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…7debbacked Yes | 10c | 1,519$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 15cpaid | +331.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…d8a7backed Yes | 16c | 1,518$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 4c | 1,496$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc77e…7c92backed Yes | 23c | 1,417$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92c…daa7backed Yes | 28c | 1,410$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9d…464ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,410$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 11cpaid | +852.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 15c | 1,387$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.29 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…d2bfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,384$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +817.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…3334backed Yes | 17c | 1,352$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +194%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4efe…0218backed Yes | 10c | 1,337$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 1,325$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.14 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f65…3924backed Yes | 10c | 1,311$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6e…5563backed Yes | 45c | 1,308$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…1b3cbacked Yes | 73c | 1,302$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…8e2fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,299$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfa…b342backed Yes | 77c | 1,284$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…9b86backed Yes | 11c | 1,280$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…144cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,272$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 6cpaid | +826.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 78c | 1,253$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.76 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 49c | 1,250$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…5aecbacked Yes | 11c | 1,232$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 11cpaid | +852.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…66edbacked Yes | 79c | 1,222$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 25c | 1,194$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.31 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb76c…992fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,192$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 26c | 1,188$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.77 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…263ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,158$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…71bdbacked Yes | 43c | 1,148$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 1,145$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 59c | 1,133$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.01 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…1e7abacked Yes | 10c | 1,128$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +861.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…0972backed Yes | 11c | 1,108$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +817.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…314abacked Yes | 10c | 1,090$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +870.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb9…2565backed Yes | 79c | 1,068$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…caeabacked Yes | 10c | 1,067$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +380.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfc…0a65backed No | 59c | 1,050$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cc19backed Yes | 10c | 1,034$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +870.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcf…a152backed Yes | 17c | 1,014$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +198.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…ed1bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,003$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,311.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 11cpaid | +160.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c3…5a0fbacked Yes | 11c | 977$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +817.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…0e0cbacked Yes | 28c | 975$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +86%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…a122backed Yes | 64c | 924.55$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…c915backed Yes | 60c | 923.03$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa4…805ebacked Yes | 10c | 902$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +870.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb10…f669backed Yes | 11c | 897$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce9…8ce7backed Yes | 29c | 882.09$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…43aebacked No | 15c | 866.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa62…a9cebacked Yes | 60c | 835$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…97afbacked Yes | 38c | 804.46$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 29c | 800$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +13.2wins | +0.49per pick | 29cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…b83cbacked Yes | 18c | 799.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?this page
- Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Guido Eduardo Nayar win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Julio César Tórrez win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Mauricio Quezada win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Miguel Cadima win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Vladimir Peña win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.