Middle East · resolved market
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9f9def6bb8024aed77a5197182408dbc673573a49774fea70509cdb0467cd31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc662…b919backed No | 76c | 3,318$2,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.24 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 11c | 2,278$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.35 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 13c | 1,999$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.92 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 7c | 1,617$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,303$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.62 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…68eebacked Yes | 23c | 1,055$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 7c | 1,050$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…7ff7backed Yes | 29c | 1,018$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 679.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 2c | 649.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…0a00backed Yes | 32c | 613.04$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 67c | 580$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed No | 76c | 577.67$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…ceb2backed Yes | 36c | 548.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 33c | 543$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63df…000cbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 14c | 499.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 33c | 488$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 64c | 474.88$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.2 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 69c | 474.79$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.43 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed No | 67c | 454.1$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +11.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 67c | 451$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.83 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…2d0ebacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 74c | 399.99$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…fc19backed Yes | 8c | 392.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 17c | 359.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 354.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 28c | 351.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 12c | 347.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 25c | 272.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 37c | 257.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…eafebacked Yes | 10c | 236.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +234.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 66c | 220$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 148.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…d345backed Yes | 35c | 143.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 65c | 135$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…8f86backed Yes | 38c | 103.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 103.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 37c | 100.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b9…fbf9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 74c | 99.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked No | 61c | 92.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 17c | 84.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 37c | 80.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +70%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4401…aea5backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -94%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 56c | 79.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…cc45backed Yes | 16c | 74.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 67.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 45c | 66.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…0a05backed No | 75c | 66.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 75c | 65.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked No | 77c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…63edbacked Yes | 45c | 53.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked No | 77c | 52.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…14f8backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5be…70c7backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 70c | 47.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d2…d2c8backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked No | 75c | 39.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a2…051bbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf749…bcd4backed No | 75c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…45e6backed No | 80c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 75c | 23.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 61c | 20.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…e297backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740a…51c9backed No | 70c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 74c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420a…6cd8backed No | 79c | 12.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?this page
- Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.