Middle East · resolved market
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb95731d95944e85a87bd7f68f7e48073e7a8585bf32d38555f76c254d6a410e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 13c | 2,780$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 9c | 1,728$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…67d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cd…de00backed Yes | 1c | 1,605$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,492$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f58…62a5backed Yes | 49c | 1,070$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.7 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,020$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed No | 50c | 906$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 8c | 683.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 587.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 7c | 586.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5be…70c7backed Yes | 13c | 516.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 379.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…0a00backed Yes | 21c | 360$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 20c | 255.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 80c | 183$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe491…b4d7backed Yes | 13c | 161.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…d299backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…b0c2backed Yes | 9c | 133.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 16c | 123.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +70%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4401…aea5backed Yes | 9c | 118$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -94%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…d7a0backed Yes | 17c | 115.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53af…b812backed Yes | 25c | 108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 15c | 95.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 20c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.37per pick | 45cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed No | 56c | 54.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed No | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?this page
- Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.