AI · resolved market
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x009cb79c526eff4af80e0e568c648a165a837c0417f4e1de3cde02bfc4a3ab42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $720,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $582,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $720,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 527 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 41,802$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.69 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed Yes | 9c | 24,464$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,263.62 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 72c | 23,953$17,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,280.17 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…551abacked No | 6c | 21,666$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…42c5backed No | 24c | 19,483$4,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,627.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…1f86backed No | 19c | 19,472$3,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,657.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 73c | 17,408$12,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,698.31 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 4c | 14,318$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.52 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d1…7de6backed Yes | 71c | 13,750$9,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,012.09 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd943…195cbacked Yes | 68c | 12,756$8,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,050.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 67c | 9,837$6,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,601.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 26c | 9,018$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.54 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…d0e9backed Yes | 7c | 8,750$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,117.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 8,708$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…68f3backed No | 61c | 8,079$4,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,965.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…0b7cbacked No | 19c | 7,617$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…f25dbacked No | 5c | 7,219$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked No | 51c | 6,406$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc656…aa88backed Yes | 38c | 6,339$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,926.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 34c | 6,108$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.13 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 25c | 6,000$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.59 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…06abbacked Yes | 68c | 5,483$3,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae9…ef3cbacked No | 13c | 5,394$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…87c9backed No | 3c | 5,315$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 5c | 4,985$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.55 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…5adbbacked No | 1c | 4,825$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 57c | 4,820$2,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.67 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…0fc7backed Yes | 15c | 4,797$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,069.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked No | 9c | 4,646$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.22 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd029…4fc1backed Yes | 22c | 4,387$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,403.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7084…4bd6backed Yes | 69c | 4,379$3,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 17c | 4,346$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.72 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 26c | 4,217$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.75 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…40fcbacked No | 5c | 3,912$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 3,900$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…a208backed No | 14c | 3,579$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,456$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.23 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f1…842dbacked No | 77c | 3,335$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,557.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed No | 3c | 3,267$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…c54fbacked No | 7c | 3,211$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…021abacked No | 2c | 3,128$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…523fbacked No | 5c | 3,029$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 27c | 2,999$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.59 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…9fcfbacked Yes | 76c | 2,925$2,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 2,913$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b8…43b0backed No | 6c | 2,873$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 21c | 2,859$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.32 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 37c | 2,823$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed No | 2c | 2,800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 6c | 2,670$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,454$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,325.04 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked No | 69c | 2,311$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.83 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c2…6de5backed Yes | 12c | 2,263$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…b8f8backed No | 20c | 2,241$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 2c | 2,225$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 30c | 2,212$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…b8d7backed No | 52c | 2,158$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…76bcbacked Yes | 12c | 2,007$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 20c | 2,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…a723backed No | 36c | 1,941$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 1,860$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.1 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 15c | 1,859$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.31 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…d320backed Yes | 10c | 1,852$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +152%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 25c | 1,800$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f8…6b50backed No | 49c | 1,800$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b4…a38abacked No | 1c | 1,778$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 49c | 1,769$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.53 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 1,740$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.91 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked No | 33c | 1,733$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 25c | 1,656$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.17 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 75c | 1,651$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 33c | 1,641$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…8a2abacked No | 3c | 1,620$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 29c | 1,612$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…cc00backed No | 3c | 1,605$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed Yes | 25c | 1,605$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 25c | 1,558$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.61 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 10c | 1,545$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.17 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 58c | 1,500$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.05 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…ec2fbacked No | 30c | 1,454$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 13c | 1,426$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.77 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 32c | 1,400$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.8 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de6…03d2backed No | 9c | 1,382$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…b99cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,381$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 39c | 1,373$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.64 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed Yes | 10c | 1,365$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.54 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ac…5cafbacked No | 24c | 1,330$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…cbc8backed No | 8c | 1,314$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 1,297$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.69 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 56c | 1,294$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.75 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 73c | 1,284$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 47c | 1,268$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.45 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…9cb9backed Yes | 8c | 1,260$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.56per pick | 28cpaid | +338.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,245$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.85 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 27c | 1,233$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 27c | 1,207$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 17c | 1,203$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.06 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked No | 1c | 1,195$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked No | 66c | 1,190$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?this page
- Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?No won
- Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?Yes won
- Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Yes won
- Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.