AI · resolved market
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71a19e7e026a18226914d6d637c6ec3faba1cd792d8c0e5c9fea18260c37fe8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $556,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $572,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $556,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 351 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 61c | 21,195$12,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,368.13 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3343…fec8backed Yes | 35c | 18,641$6,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,475.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 75c | 17,969$13,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,505.04 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…aecebacked No | 78c | 16,684$12,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,706.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa652…8e90backed Yes | 41c | 14,834$6,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,023.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 71c | 11,840$8,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,421 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…2558backed Yes | 33c | 10,597$3,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked Yes | 42c | 10,516$4,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,381.01 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1f…1c2abacked Yes | 13c | 7,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 67c | 7,200$4,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,365.11 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 18c | 6,408$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.46 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…37b5backed Yes | 5c | 6,202$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 74c | 5,976$4,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.55 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 74c | 5,435$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.1 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…4c36backed Yes | 24c | 5,383$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 72c | 4,909$3,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.66 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…6abebacked Yes | 3c | 4,798$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 67c | 4,595$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.04 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 3,873$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.43 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…4d78backed Yes | 26c | 3,797$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 34c | 3,500$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.72 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…9e90backed Yes | 29c | 3,457$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…d87fbacked Yes | 21c | 3,314$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…5cdcbacked No | 67c | 3,041$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.39 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 48c | 2,969$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.7 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 23c | 2,947$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.61 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 41c | 2,863$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.98 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6414…61bbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,751$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 71c | 2,460$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.2 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 2,432$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,406$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 55c | 2,393$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 59c | 2,346$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.03 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 2,346$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…4a62backed Yes | 21c | 2,306$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.3 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…2bc6backed Yes | 3c | 2,302$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0926…4624backed Yes | 5c | 2,270$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,232$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 2,213$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.46 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked No | 74c | 2,197$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.79 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55f1…842dbacked No | 65c | 2,158$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x788b…046abacked Yes | 49c | 2,043$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…8f08backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 1cpaid | +1,076.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50fb…af7dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,922$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,869$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 1,848$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.16 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…4ff5backed Yes | 2c | 1,820$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…befdbacked Yes | 31c | 1,811$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 42c | 1,792$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,762$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 70c | 1,657$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.28 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,642$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.3 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…6108backed No | 62c | 1,621$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 34c | 1,600$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…3486backed Yes | 1c | 1,525$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 72c | 1,443$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.06 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…0b58backed No | 56c | 1,313$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 72c | 1,300$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 66c | 1,300$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.98 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed No | 68c | 1,253$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.3 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…e378backed Yes | 1c | 1,229$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 31c | 1,171$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.01 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 12c | 1,160$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 8c | 1,135$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 7c | 1,038$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 72c | 1,036$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.62 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…3ee1backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb23…c959backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…6570backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 28c | 999.96$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes | 27c | 976$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 66c | 965.22$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.08 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 31c | 951$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 75c | 943.18$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.35 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ec…1ea6backed Yes | 42c | 934.19$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 29c | 933$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 917.73$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.14 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb8…4af5backed Yes | 1c | 900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95af…3822backed Yes | 1c | 900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…bf2ebacked Yes | 39c | 878.64$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 13c | 859$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 70c | 849.79$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.94 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…e888backed Yes | 4c | 795.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 4c | 790.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed No | 69c | 784.75$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.14 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…a14cbacked Yes | 5c | 718.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…6884backed Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 13c | 706$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd118…01f9backed Yes | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 68c | 699.99$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 72c | 677.77$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.78 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 5c | 673$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 671$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked No | 69c | 662$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c40…445cbacked Yes | 24c | 661.51$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 65c | 654.94$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.34 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 69c | 651$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?this page
- Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?No won
- Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?Yes won
- Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Yes won
- Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.