TailMyPicks
Market

AI · resolved market

Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$116,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,503 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7084…4bd6backed Yes7c13,579$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed No63c10,689$6,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,933.752638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes10c3,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2903231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c88…8570backed Yes11c2,900$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2fa…4a62backed Yes14c2,533$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.931520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6906…d8b8backed No66c1,956$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.83540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes34c1,859$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.915735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes5c1,179$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.684918.4%9 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No61c1,158$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.1912636.5%46 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes26c1,090$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.23941%16 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2103…4ff5backed Yes10c1,058$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.191520%3 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes16c956.02$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.819915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c917.14$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.313042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No73c899.97$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.022055%11 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8952…1f26backed Yes23c880.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+92.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c830.18$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.512674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed No40c793$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.81631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dc2…297bbacked Yes30c789$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.7742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ef…b300backed Yes12c788$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.561844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+78.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe486…b944backed Yes4c778.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a1…c29fbacked Yes3c715.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb986…d5bfbacked Yes6c657.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes38c640$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.958754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes6c624.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402512%3 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7628…921bbacked Yes12c622.11$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No68c600$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.642763%17 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes7c600$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.044721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe23b…f147backed Yes8c599.36$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.69742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+90.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f0c…20bfbacked Yes67c595.26$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes60c571$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd190…3ee1backed Yes9c545.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes4c533.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4247938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ab…434bbacked Yes58c522$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.762330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes11c520.74$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.791315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-41%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c476.55$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.892522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d1…67ccbacked No78c471.12$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.363342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b3…af09backed Yes24c425$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd40c…e6f7backed Yes11c413.91$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes10c400$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3832329.1%94 W · 229 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8feb…8908backed Yes57c400$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2281656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed Yes5c390$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c42…1616backed No70c382$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d2b…f025backed No70c370$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+82.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69e0…75b7backed Yes27c367.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b62…9ecdbacked Yes34c352.43$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked No46c342.83$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6427536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc70…50c0backed Yes35c338$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfe5…e888backed Yes9c335$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+43.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6414…61bbbacked Yes12c333.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9634…aae2backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes10c324$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9418311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes44c320$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.88220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No42c293$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.942334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf143…3427backed Yes34c292.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc023…6284backed Yes9c277.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed No65c268$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.81861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f42…233bbacked Yes10c247.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.781618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+124.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed Yes60c241.97$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.184341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa98…af7fbacked No74c238.74$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+50.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x177b…d43dbacked Yes40c236.1$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.44742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde90…76b1backed Yes47c234.6$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No58c231$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7510338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No42c229$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.822853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+56.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No53c226.13$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.68650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x217e…09debacked Yes60c222$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes57c214.04$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc5f…20cfbacked Yes7c214$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes35c205.02$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7619040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed Yes12c202$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.242536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x106f…83d5backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes54c200$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1071540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.52934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x749f…9501backed Yes53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1066232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf57d…bf12backed Yes10c199.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes40c196$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.21338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes21c194.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3220731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc796…35c6backed Yes11c190$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes9c188.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3228826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No62c188.31$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0511841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes25c186.25$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7358.6%3 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes8c176.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.471827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a28…0e02backed Yes12c167$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No61c162.18$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.253844.7%17 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+105.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f10…ef9abacked No56c159.19$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.04742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+76.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No34c157.69$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.585742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba3…27e2backed Yes9c150$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.78933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+53.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce6…e378backed Yes11c150$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf95c…0c71backed Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aea…ee37backed Yes36c146$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed Yes30c134$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff1…85cdbacked No70c134$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.21729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes9c125$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114423.6%34 W · 110 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c8d…4f17backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Yes32c123$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.364266.7%28 W · 14 L+6.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf3ec…95dabacked Yes9c122.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes55c120.84$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.825122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed No42c119.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.81442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c115.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9840712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.