AI · resolved market
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b53425366b55268501a8e1c9650c982e999c5a4dc9ea1b03cc84061a1a70051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7084…4bd6backed Yes | 7c | 13,579$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 63c | 10,689$6,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,933.75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c88…8570backed Yes | 11c | 2,900$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…4a62backed Yes | 14c | 2,533$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.93 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…d8b8backed No | 66c | 1,956$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 34c | 1,859$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.91 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,179$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 61c | 1,158$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.19 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 26c | 1,090$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.2 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…4ff5backed Yes | 10c | 1,058$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 16c | 956.02$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 917.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 73c | 899.97$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.02 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…1f26backed Yes | 23c | 880.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 830.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 40c | 793$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked Yes | 30c | 789$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 12c | 788$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…b944backed Yes | 4c | 778.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…c29fbacked Yes | 3c | 715.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…d5bfbacked Yes | 6c | 657.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 38c | 640$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.95 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes | 6c | 624.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…921bbacked Yes | 12c | 622.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 68c | 600$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.64 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 7c | 600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 8c | 599.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…20bfbacked Yes | 67c | 595.26$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 60c | 571$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…3ee1backed Yes | 9c | 545.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 533.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 58c | 522$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.76 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 11c | 520.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 476.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked No | 78c | 471.12$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b3…af09backed Yes | 24c | 425$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd40c…e6f7backed Yes | 11c | 413.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…8908backed Yes | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 5c | 390$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed No | 70c | 382$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 70c | 370$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69e0…75b7backed Yes | 27c | 367.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…9ecdbacked Yes | 34c | 352.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 46c | 342.83$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.64 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed Yes | 35c | 338$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…e888backed Yes | 9c | 335$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6414…61bbbacked Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 324$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 44c | 320$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 42c | 293$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.94 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…3427backed Yes | 34c | 292.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…6284backed Yes | 9c | 277.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 65c | 268$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f42…233bbacked Yes | 10c | 247.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 60c | 241.97$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.18 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa98…af7fbacked No | 74c | 238.74$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…d43dbacked Yes | 40c | 236.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…76b1backed Yes | 47c | 234.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 58c | 231$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 42c | 229$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.82 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 226.13$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked Yes | 60c | 222$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 57c | 214.04$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…20cfbacked Yes | 7c | 214$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 35c | 205.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 12c | 202$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…83d5backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 54c | 200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 40c | 196$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 194.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc796…35c6backed Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 188.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 62c | 188.31$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 25c | 186.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 8c | 176.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed Yes | 12c | 167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 61c | 162.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…ef9abacked No | 56c | 159.19$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 34c | 157.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…27e2backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…e378backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95c…0c71backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…ee37backed Yes | 36c | 146$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 30c | 134$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 70c | 134$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8d…4f17backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 32c | 123$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ec…95dabacked Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 55c | 120.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 42c | 119.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 115.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?this page
- Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?Yes won
- Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Yes won
- Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?No won
- Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.