AI · resolved market
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77d5dea29462651bc4d34c98fcd5f4bf39939cd33fa2dd83d1d1a7cc52a2b809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,293,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,293,250 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 386 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c40…445cbacked No | 0c | 133,284$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.51 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…3828backed No | 0c | 127,116$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…7bd0backed No | 1c | 88,968$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88c6…2055backed No | 0c | 78,084$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…6aecbacked No | 11c | 64,813$6,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,818.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…7c39backed No | 0c | 63,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 0c | 56,973$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…483cbacked No | 0c | 50,232$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebc…93dfbacked No | 0c | 47,438$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 2c | 38,399$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.27 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 31,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…85b8backed No | 0c | 30,075$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…d93dbacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…dcf5backed No | 0c | 29,143$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…24fcbacked No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd230…f600backed No | 0c | 22,391$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 1c | 22,084$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.69 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3dd…cfc9backed No | 0c | 22,082$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked No | 0c | 21,144$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…739bbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…cadfbacked No | 0c | 19,950$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 2c | 16,252$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.51 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…bd2abacked No | 22c | 15,797$3,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked No | 1c | 15,653$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…5fe2backed Yes | 68c | 14,833$10,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,690.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 0c | 14,489$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…5015backed No | 0c | 13,875$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 4c | 13,787$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e43…a701backed No | 0c | 13,294$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 3c | 12,071$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…ecaabacked No | 0c | 11,920$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…9410backed No | 0c | 11,600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 3c | 11,000$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.29 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…a82cbacked No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…c414backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 1c | 10,983$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…ab69backed No | 29c | 10,830$3,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked No | 0c | 10,667$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf471…611abacked No | 1c | 10,312$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…319abacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5129…9980backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…08cfbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…3278backed No | 0c | 9,654$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…f887backed No | 0c | 9,475$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bc…7f95backed Yes | 76c | 7,880$5,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8921…8c9ebacked No | 1c | 7,370$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4b…b095backed No | 0c | 7,080$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…2842backed Yes | 66c | 7,046$4,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,382.47 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc664…ffeabacked No | 1c | 6,789$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a51…2e50backed Yes | 72c | 6,781$4,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dba…71e9backed Yes | 65c | 6,704$4,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.92 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed No | 35c | 6,674$2,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,338.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 3c | 6,500$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 6,472$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.25 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked No | 6c | 6,186$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…1c2ebacked No | 28c | 5,965$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…1598backed No | 0c | 5,949$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…c418backed No | 1c | 5,622$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,260$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 5c | 5,000$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…9f1bbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…be7dbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…0587backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…43b7backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…54ccbacked Yes | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b3…392abacked Yes | 72c | 4,795$3,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 3c | 4,626$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.57 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdda7…81babacked No | 1c | 4,601$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb7…3644backed No | 0c | 4,530$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 26c | 4,483$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.3 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…bb0fbacked No | 3c | 4,447$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a7…bc97backed Yes | 73c | 4,106$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa608…248bbacked No | 0c | 4,020$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 72c | 3,952$2,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.01 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed No | 18c | 3,738$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5815…224abacked No | 0c | 3,688$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98c…aad9backed Yes | 73c | 3,522$2,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked No | 25c | 3,499$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.23 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…2f29backed Yes | 64c | 3,426$2,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…cd75backed Yes | 73c | 3,369$2,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 4c | 3,312$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…d131backed No | 1c | 3,227$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed No | 2c | 3,106$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 2,728$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…14cbbacked Yes | 62c | 2,706$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7133…438abacked No | 32c | 2,500$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed No | 1c | 2,380$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 2,339$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.93 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1499…5025backed No | 7c | 2,323$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…3b37backed No | 27c | 2,248$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…5cdcbacked Yes | 69c | 2,228$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.43 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked Yes | 65c | 2,222$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07db…8ea8backed Yes | 70c | 2,083$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…2cfebacked No | 5c | 2,067$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 1c | 2,042$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 4c | 2,024$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?this page
- GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.