TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,293,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,293,250 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 386 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c40…445cbacked No0c133,284$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.513026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x393d…3828backed No0c127,116$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x087e…51c5backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef3…7bd0backed No1c88,968$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5301457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.26per pick32cpaid+29.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x88c6…2055backed No0c78,084$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca5…6aecbacked No11c64,813$6,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,818.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7769…7c39backed No0c63,000$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No0c56,973$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.971030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab78…483cbacked No0c50,232$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebc…93dfbacked No0c47,438$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No2c38,399$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.276737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bed…85b8backed No0c30,075$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72db…d93dbacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a69…dcf5backed No0c29,143$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…24fcbacked No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd230…f600backed No0c22,391$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.88520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-67.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No1c22,084$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.692814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3dd…cfc9backed No0c22,082$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.25633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b7a…86cfbacked No0c21,144$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe86c…739bbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f18…cadfbacked No0c19,950$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No2c16,252$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.514619.6%9 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8590…bd2abacked No22c15,797$3,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,469.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdc…444dbacked No1c15,653$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.371464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x239d…5fe2backed Yes68c14,833$10,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,690.49580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No0c14,489$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.491540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97c9…5015backed No0c13,875$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No4c13,787$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.79714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-81%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e43…a701backed No0c13,294$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No3c12,071$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.671030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d6…ecaabacked No0c11,920$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.92520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc118…9410backed No0c11,600$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No3c11,000$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.2911425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa87d…a82cbacked No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1160%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3e…c414backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82cf…0998backed No1c10,983$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.63333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-44.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc0…ab69backed No29c10,830$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,152.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9729…038abacked No0c10,667$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf471…611abacked No1c10,312$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0976…319abacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5129…9980backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db5…08cfbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd347…3278backed No0c9,654$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca3…f887backed No0c9,475$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4bc…7f95backed Yes76c7,880$5,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8921…8c9ebacked No1c7,370$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e4b…b095backed No0c7,080$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1695…2842backed Yes66c7,046$4,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.471675%12 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+39.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc664…ffeabacked No1c6,789$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a51…2e50backed Yes72c6,781$4,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dba…71e9backed Yes65c6,704$4,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.921369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90a7…9e54backed No35c6,674$2,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,338.451241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No3c6,500$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c6,472$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.252560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0141…c2dabacked No6c6,186$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3721216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-77.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a6…1c2ebacked No28c5,965$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x569b…1598backed No0c5,949$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd669…c418backed No1c5,622$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c5,260$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.671,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed No5c5,000$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.571637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10229.1%2 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c88…9f1bbacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8117…be7dbacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d1…0587backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a1c…43b7backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf183…54ccbacked Yes72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b3…392abacked Yes72c4,795$3,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.75333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No3c4,626$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.578220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdda7…81babacked No1c4,601$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb7…3644backed No0c4,530$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No26c4,483$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.34017.5%7 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fa7…bb0fbacked No3c4,447$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58a7…bc97backed Yes73c4,106$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa608…248bbacked No0c4,020$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes72c3,952$2,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.0120130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b54…db07backed No18c3,738$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5815…224abacked No0c3,688$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98c…aad9backed Yes73c3,522$2,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.023100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffef…d7dbbacked No25c3,499$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.232817.9%5 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+67.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2f5…2f29backed Yes64c3,426$2,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.37862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+50.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x340d…cd75backed Yes73c3,369$2,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed No4c3,312$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.341040%4 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+117.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c83…d131backed No1c3,227$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed No2c3,106$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.83862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No1c2,728$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.322522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb34…14cbbacked Yes62c2,706$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.58366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked No1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201560%9 W · 6 L+4.8wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+180.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7133…438abacked No32c2,500$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-81.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x419f…e853backed No1c2,380$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No24c2,339$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.9320731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1499…5025backed No7c2,323$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9028…3b37backed No27c2,248$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60730%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0298…5cdcbacked Yes69c2,228$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.431675%12 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+40.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Yes65c2,222$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.691050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07db…8ea8backed Yes70c2,083$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.1785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick71cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe551…2cfebacked No5c2,067$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No1c2,042$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.426434.4%22 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No4c2,024$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.77150%0 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.