AI · resolved market
GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x761edb1bc73e48fe11c3628458013b9bbc45afe0650c5813a9174cf346bc5bf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9afa…10eabacked Yes | 11c | 5,277$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 1c | 2,299$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…1e3abacked Yes | 5c | 2,040$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,754$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 1,442$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 2c | 1,299$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 14c | 941.91$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…4a62backed Yes | 29c | 939.95$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.92 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…f1febacked Yes | 10c | 903.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…4cd9backed Yes | 6c | 892.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 871.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…293bbacked Yes | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 79c | 636.82$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Yes | 3c | 581.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 68c | 555$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…e639backed Yes | 11c | 550.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b4…5d63backed Yes | 4c | 540.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 10c | 519.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 503.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 6c | 409.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…635ebacked No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 78c | 346.92$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 340.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 331.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…e7e1backed Yes | 25c | 326.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 65c | 253.25$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d3…0dfabacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +587.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 79c | 246$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…e488backed Yes | 12c | 232.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 8c | 213.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 9c | 200.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d5…c20fbacked No | 72c | 199.62$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 161.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 156.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 155$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…4b52backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +366.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…64f4backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…caf0backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…bfb5backed No | 71c | 95.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 91.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…b5febacked Yes | 27c | 87.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…1c1ebacked Yes | 11c | 87.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf992…ebb5backed Yes | 31c | 86.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892a…deccbacked No | 73c | 86.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…b194backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 69.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…d7a1backed No | 77c | 65.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…fe06backed No | 68c | 55.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e1c0backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…d567backed Yes | 26c | 50.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…621ebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 28c | 49.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed No | 73c | 48.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…ac93backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…fdc7backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ef…8addbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…6db8backed No | 70c | 34.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…165abacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…0b6cbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…3d0abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065e…cf28backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7728…f932backed No | 69c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f52…8897backed No | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026?this page
- GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.