AI · resolved market
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x096fa9db9667f4d4920a2fc3b80ab0608a7de6ef4771519fd691e881d1b3fe3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $400,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,170 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x393d…3828backed No | 0c | 52,274$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 0c | 46,135$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…319abacked No | 0c | 41,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebc…93dfbacked No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…7bd0backed No | 0c | 13,553$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…40c0backed No | 0c | 11,286$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 11,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4aa…8fccbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…08cfbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 2c | 5,259$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 2c | 5,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b3…392abacked No | 18c | 4,469$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 2c | 4,039$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 0c | 3,212$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed No | 3c | 1,587$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 3c | 1,463$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,202$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 2c | 1,161$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,056$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 4c | 889.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 816.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…14cbbacked Yes | 79c | 805.64$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked No | 8c | 800$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…ab69backed No | 13c | 745.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 689.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef3…16dbbacked No | 8c | 660$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked No | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…bdc4backed No | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…e46ebacked No | 13c | 373.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 66c | 316.03$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…7d99backed No | 29c | 263.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af8…46d0backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed No | 12c | 248.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa609…6844backed No | 9c | 220.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 7c | 214.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 8c | 166.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked No | 12c | 164.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked No | 11c | 162.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…a7dabacked No | 32c | 158.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…63c5backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 120.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…458dbacked No | 17c | 117.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed No | 18c | 102.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…6636backed No | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffd…13ddbacked No | 15c | 97.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9213…c608backed No | 12c | 97.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…12b1backed No | 46c | 94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 73c | 21.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?this page
- GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.