Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e7d87625777d9de933e0e5c89b9c1cda0509ec0611846b88357514539bf53ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,888 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 15c | 5,565$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.26 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,064$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 24c | 4,025$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.26 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 19c | 2,475$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.96 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 31c | 2,388$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.52 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 72c | 2,196$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.86 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9489…4619backed No | 74c | 1,822$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 23c | 1,793$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.4 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 24c | 1,785$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.29 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 1,555$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.26 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 37c | 1,462$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.65 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…0494backed Yes | 21c | 1,437$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 51c | 1,421$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed No | 58c | 1,411$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.75 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 29c | 1,396$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,333$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.83 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 67c | 1,288$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…7087backed Yes | 41c | 1,187$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cd…9740backed No | 71c | 1,101$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.61 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 16c | 1,021$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.91 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 22c | 960$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 49c | 954$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked No | 49c | 945$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d747backed No | 65c | 914.14$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.01 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Yes | 33c | 899.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed No | 67c | 892.44$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.44 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 78c | 877.08$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.08 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 23c | 873$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.79 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…a6e5backed Yes | 13c | 867.3$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.85 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed No | 49c | 855$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…a01abacked Yes | 16c | 719.04$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…ac68backed No | 72c | 712.8$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 710.46$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.19 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 28c | 693.52$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 78c | 687$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50c…f75dbacked Yes | 30c | 676.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 33c | 651$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.83 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…6447backed Yes | 33c | 637$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 608.61$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.47 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1079…ca89backed Yes | 36c | 555.03$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed No | 72c | 554.34$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.34 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked Yes | 16c | 550$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…2b9cbacked Yes | 29c | 533.37$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.11 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed Yes | 47c | 526.65$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 511.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 29c | 500$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e39…dfd9backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…246dbacked Yes | 20c | 493.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed No | 80c | 480$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked Yes | 20c | 480$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8f…8bcbbacked Yes | 27c | 479.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 22c | 477$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 20c | 461.37$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked No | 77c | 449$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b2…c753backed No | 69c | 439.91$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.77 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 77c | 424$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 30c | 372.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 13c | 344.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…63d2backed No | 76c | 324.92$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 13c | 319.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…2822backed No | 70c | 315$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 23c | 310.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 307.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 33c | 300.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…55cebacked Yes | 28c | 299.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 27c | 298.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 295.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…d8e6backed Yes | 18c | 290.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…0947backed Yes | 42c | 283.36$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ff75backed Yes | 54c | 278.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…2763backed Yes | 36c | 276.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d9…b2e8backed Yes | 25c | 272.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedc…8e5ebacked No | 75c | 270.44$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 74c | 255$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 249.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…a12fbacked Yes | 6c | 240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked No | 76c | 237.85$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 218.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf43…71aabacked Yes | 8c | 218.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 204.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 66c | 204.56$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 78c | 203$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked No | 75c | 202$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 27c | 199.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…8676backed No | 55c | 198.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda5…830dbacked Yes | 16c | 185.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed Yes | 15c | 180.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…848abacked Yes | 27c | 179.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 23c | 179.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +13.5wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed Yes | 6c | 178.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 24c | 176.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 171.52$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…9198backed Yes | 29c | 171.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +292.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 166.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 78c | 162.55$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe295…55b3backed Yes | 30c | 159.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed No | 73c | 157.84$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in March 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.