MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6f2e36c506c275117b80932efd8212e1e87bde2809dc5705792fa956cc7bc14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30a3…1943backed Under | 53c | 2,246$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 47c | 1,203$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.26 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 29c | 993.5$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.32 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 40c | 850$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…a7c1backed Under | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 56c | 755.48$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.2 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Over | 46c | 697$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.38 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 41c | 522.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.23 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 48c | 522.58$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.74 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 459.62$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 60c | 450$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Over | 43c | 405.72$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.26 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 4c | 337$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Over | 47c | 277$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.81 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Under | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af4…f9e0backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Under | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -10.5wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…26dcbacked Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 42c | 74.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 43c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 61.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 47c | 55.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 47c | 54.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Over | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 57c | 40.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 37.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 57c | 36.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 41c | 31.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 54c | 28.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 50c | 25.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 52c | 24.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 51c | 22.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5this page
- NRFI: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago CubsYes won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.