TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$192,020
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$203,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,020 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Washington Nationals32c40,000$12,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,799.9731149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Chicago Cubs70c34,755$24,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,437.2518860.1%113 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+237.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Washington Nationals15c30,979$4,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,589.042,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Washington Nationals30c23,260$6,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,996.7746547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Chicago Cubs68c10,405$7,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,348.181,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Chicago Cubs68c8,699$5,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,783.532657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Washington Nationals33c6,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9805352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Washington Nationals30c5,981$1,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.291,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Chicago Cubs73c4,879$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.6140629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc765…9322backed Chicago Cubs68c4,254$2,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.43666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Chicago Cubs71c3,923$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.185149%25 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Washington Nationals2c3,510$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2311125.2%28 W · 83 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Chicago Cubs67c3,345$2,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.991,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Chicago Cubs68c3,132$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.3516547.3%78 W · 87 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Chicago Cubs68c3,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96024651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Chicago Cubs68c2,888$1,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.16366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Washington Nationals1c2,534$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Washington Nationals32c2,500$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80075049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Washington Nationals6c2,336$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.829435.1%33 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Chicago Cubs67c2,222$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.261,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Chicago Cubs75c2,191$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.0621656.5%122 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago Cubs68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6401,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc689…5250backed Washington Nationals33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.994562.2%28 W · 17 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Washington Nationals32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.9961947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Chicago Cubs67c1,981$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.8211454.4%62 W · 52 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c04…a98fbacked Chicago Cubs69c1,543$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.381258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf398…a9b1backed Washington Nationals33c1,514$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Washington Nationals9c1,510$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4615550.3%78 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74c5…6cb7backed Washington Nationals34c1,339$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4491435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-36.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals29c1,265$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.426,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Chicago Cubs67c1,219$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.431,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Chicago Cubs68c1,071$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.726654.5%36 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Washington Nationals8c1,024$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Cubs80c958.37$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.671,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Washington Nationals31c858.55$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4967849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Washington Nationals32c840.23$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.8717050%85 W · 85 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x843a…043cbacked Chicago Cubs69c833.33$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f0…361dbacked Chicago Cubs80c800$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1609554.7%52 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Washington Nationals33c793.63$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.9850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Washington Nationals33c788.73$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.447833.3%26 W · 52 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Chicago Cubs68c775$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24811450.9%58 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Washington Nationals29c700$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20318239.6%72 W · 110 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Washington Nationals32c699.99$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2211346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Washington Nationals33c693$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.6927751.3%142 W · 135 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c5…cb81backed Chicago Cubs68c580.97$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Washington Nationals33c504.49$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.481,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8004…d0f1backed Chicago Cubs73c456.16$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.162259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc4…91a1backed Chicago Cubs68c444.54$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.25540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Chicago Cubs68c440$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1820548.3%99 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Washington Nationals33c400$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.883,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd63e…0d52backed Chicago Cubs69c371.01$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.019161.5%56 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc7…7f02backed Chicago Cubs69c370$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.76055%33 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab75…cce0backed Washington Nationals30c358.88$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x63a7…3bb2backed Chicago Cubs70c357.14$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.144158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked Chicago Cubs68c353$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.2831949.5%158 W · 161 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Washington Nationals32c351$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3244643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Chicago Cubs69c349$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1991749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Washington Nationals29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028347.3%134 W · 149 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals31c330.59$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.556,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Washington Nationals32c327.45$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.482,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b70…3102backed Chicago Cubs69c304.94$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.53742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7cb…bc54backed Washington Nationals33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014953%79 W · 70 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce53…834bbacked Chicago Cubs68c301.94$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.629063.3%57 W · 33 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Washington Nationals31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9311647.4%55 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Washington Nationals34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10222849.1%112 W · 116 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb551…8043backed Washington Nationals34c292$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals33c288.76$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.292,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Chicago Cubs68c288.08$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1911744.4%52 W · 65 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a96…0d7cbacked Washington Nationals33c271.08$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.463363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked Chicago Cubs68c240.85$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0718754%101 W · 86 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Washington Nationals5c239.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.751,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Chicago Cubs65c236.24$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.681,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Washington Nationals27c229$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.910353.4%55 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Washington Nationals26c225$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.484841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf40e…9addbacked Chicago Cubs67c223.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.886958%40 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Washington Nationals33c209.09$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6912257.4%70 W · 52 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Washington Nationals34c205.88$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7056946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b1…e904backed Washington Nationals31c203.97$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7269351.9%360 W · 333 L+26.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Washington Nationals31c203.2$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9939850.3%200 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Chicago Cubs66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6835245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Washington Nationals6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fdc…5defbacked Washington Nationals10c196.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.821942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4e…b371backed Washington Nationals7c185.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ce9…e3e2backed Washington Nationals30c179.97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.992166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+59.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Washington Nationals32c176$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3268846.8%322 W · 366 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…4648backed Chicago Cubs68c160$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.23458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Washington Nationals34c158$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0813442.5%57 W · 77 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd5…11bbbacked Washington Nationals33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Chicago Cubs69c148$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8840648.5%197 W · 209 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9865…f6afbacked Washington Nationals18c147.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2631032.9%102 W · 208 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked Washington Nationals28c144.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.882548%12 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…c7eabacked Chicago Cubs69c142.09$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.65875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d24…9c89backed Chicago Cubs68c141.18$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1815257.2%87 W · 65 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Chicago Cubs80c139$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.87256.9%41 W · 31 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6f7…a146backed Chicago Cubs74c130$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Washington Nationals32c127.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9622851.3%117 W · 111 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Chicago Cubs68c117.65$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6566551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Washington Nationals26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3068942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Washington Nationals31c113.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7255541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Washington Nationals31c110$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.17839.7%31 W · 47 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.