MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0c8ac82c91e76b3474e7a341a8c527fc1aed3086944b4767c629d7d338792a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 11,318$5,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,432.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…2a6fbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 5,770$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 1,644$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.37 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 1,640$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.59 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 951.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.3 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 589.89$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.52 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 578.06$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 562.29$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.9 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 520$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 320.56$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…66dcbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 188.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 160$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 135.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 126.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 118.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 113.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 104.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 95.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 64.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 64.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 60.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…9d38backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 47.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…bae9backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 38.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 37.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 35.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 35.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…f37cbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Washington Nationals | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b21…05ecbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 18.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago CubsYes won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.