TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Penguins vs. Capitals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Capitalsof Penguins, Capitals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$698,101
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$732,396

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $698,101 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 466 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Penguins41c164,857$66,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,992.8451550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9976…67dabacked Capitals58c145,316$84,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,032.7119848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Capitals60c112,923$67,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,556.7167051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Capitals59c74,372$43,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,492.528952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d9…465cbacked Penguins40c72,696$29,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,078.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Capitals58c37,312$21,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,671.0241850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Penguins42c30,000$12,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,6003056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a65…9142backed Capitals59c25,000$14,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2502166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Capitals61c18,306$11,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,086.127448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Penguins41c18,005$7,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,382.015052%26 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Capitals60c17,010$10,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8042347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Penguins42c16,302$6,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,830.281,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Capitals59c14,321$8,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,935.0140356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Penguins41c12,000$4,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,943.881,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Penguins42c9,550$4,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,01156649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Capitals58c8,621$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.6932151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Capitals59c8,524$5,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,494.8420756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a8…06d9backed Penguins42c8,134$3,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,416.282035%7 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Penguins41c7,816$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.2861950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Capitals59c6,000$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,46060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e3…d750backed Penguins42c5,188$2,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,178.961942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed Penguins43c5,160$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2195230.8%16 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Penguins43c5,086$2,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,192.8627044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Capitals60c5,023$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.1689636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Penguins42c5,022$2,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.414841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa0e…718cbacked Capitals60c5,020$3,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.981050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Capitals57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.985276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+42.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Penguins44c4,593$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Penguins26c4,540$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.4440351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Penguins42c4,429$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.5166552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Penguins42c4,285$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.7447951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Capitals61c4,106$2,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.5333450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Capitals59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Capitals59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Capitals60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Penguins41c4,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.9622747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Capitals59c3,658$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.321,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b6f…ce60backed Penguins41c3,609$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.762853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Capitals57c3,533$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,532.736253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x047f…6f34backed Penguins42c3,448$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.16850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95de…c9b2backed Penguins41c3,400$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3943243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Capitals59c3,047$1,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.237652.6%40 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Capitals58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e96…1513backed Penguins42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Capitals59c2,931$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.5185250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Penguins0c2,910$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.712504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Penguins21c2,862$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.130944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9161…3de7backed Capitals58c2,820$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b1…092ebacked Capitals80c2,761$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.371050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Penguins42c2,679$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.822,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Capitals60c2,542$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.976950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Capitals60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.9983652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2b…6813backed Capitals58c2,463$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.481752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Penguins38c2,186$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.732,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Penguins1c2,141$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.422250%111 W · 111 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5559…2bd2backed Capitals59c2,002$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.689760.8%59 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Penguins42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84025447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…debdbacked Capitals60c1,926$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e58…3864backed Penguins41c1,870$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.836246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Penguins45c1,867$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8383,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Capitals59c1,746$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.99751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe779…335ebacked Penguins51c1,600$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8164463.6%28 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Penguins33c1,542$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.810941.3%45 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5b…88acbacked Penguins41c1,502$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6182339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Penguins42c1,487$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.5425555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x196e…e9d6backed Penguins43c1,479$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.011435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Capitals71c1,401$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.0913850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed Penguins41c1,360$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.610548.6%51 W · 54 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd714…9a62backed Penguins40c1,275$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5106845.6%31 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Capitals60c1,201$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.430259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xaccd…7402backed Penguins42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+38.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Penguins44c1,131$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.52,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Capitals74c1,121$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.392,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Penguins42c1,040$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.682043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Penguins41c1,024$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.6631753.9%171 W · 146 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Capitals59c1,021$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.5929448.6%143 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe301…9bd9backed Capitals51c1,011$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.726354%34 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Penguins42c1,001$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.429545.3%43 W · 52 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Capitals58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Capitals59c1,000$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.511152.3%58 W · 53 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Penguins39c999.87$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.957354.8%40 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Capitals60c900$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3603053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0add…8809backed Penguins7c865.79$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Penguins43c850$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.538445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69d5…7767backed Penguins41c850$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Penguins29c839.96$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.6710746.7%50 W · 57 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Penguins42c833$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.8683149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Capitals56c820.87$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.1826154%141 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Capitals74c800.28$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.911,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Capitals59c800.01$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32845749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Penguins20c800$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16033234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Penguins34c777.3$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.5614946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Penguins41c765$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.6511243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Capitals71c757.78$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.7616446.3%76 W · 88 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc30b…1b6dbacked Penguins41c738.15$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.646640.9%27 W · 39 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Penguins41c729.95$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.282948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf715…2c2abacked Capitals60c719.95$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.334247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc070…203abacked Penguins53c707.55$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37515252%79 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Capitals74c675.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.687163.4%45 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf841…426abacked Penguins43c658.84$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.765858.6%34 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.