NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73cf15faa3a6d78f6db12014a0f4fe7a392ee412d2f2c1b9731140f0dd20a3b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Over | 67c | 14,424$9,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,671.52 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 33c | 9,110$3,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,103.7 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 33c | 1,871$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.74 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 33c | 1,868$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.69 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 58c | 1,232$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.51 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…6dfbbacked Under | 54c | 1,081$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba45…87f3backed Over | 68c | 814.64$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 32c | 750.15$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.1 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Under | 33c | 681.82$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.82 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 32c | 514.48$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.43 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…b137backed Under | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…21f7backed Over | 68c | 470.78$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 337.89$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.42 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 335.93$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.62 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 47c | 318.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Over | 74c | 303.25$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…4f64backed Under | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 50c | 275.69$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.22 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 41c | 242.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.77 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7b98backed Over | 66c | 223.44$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.47 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Over | 38c | 199.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 37c | 199.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 44c | 157$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 68c | 145.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 41c | 139$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under | 32c | 113.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 32c | 100.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…54c9backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 70c | 90.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6e…6cedbacked Over | 22c | 89.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Under | 34c | 86.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 35c | 85.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 48c | 82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 42c | 79.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…d3ddbacked Under | 71c | 74.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 47c | 73.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 70.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…d2ebbacked Over | 60c | 66.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 68c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Over | 67c | 37.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 43c | 36.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Over | 61c | 32.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 53c | 30.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -12.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…1d88backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 70c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…de74backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 46c | 25.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed Under | 66c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 65c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Over | 68c | 16.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Penguins vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 3.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.