NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x247d1891cba87eda70818d3907d1ad95d89018e12e7a2328ea0b726ae2074032
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 44c | 40,602$17,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,737.16 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…db3cbacked Over | 56c | 17,857$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 56c | 8,096$4,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,524.87 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 56c | 7,000$3,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,920 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed Under | 46c | 6,046$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,246.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 45c | 2,852$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.56 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 56c | 2,401$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.56 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 1,994$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.56 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8c…2f40backed Under | 45c | 1,496$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 1,100$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 48c | 999.86$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.93 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 54c | 961.02$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.95 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 44c | 894$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.81 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Under | 49c | 756.61$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 750$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 56c | 698.87$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.41 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62de…39fbbacked Under | 49c | 657.8$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 56c | 644.68$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.96 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 615$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.5 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 52c | 510.82$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.63 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Over | 61c | 346.97$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.52 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fa…8f86backed Under | 79c | 290.57$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 75cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 52c | 246$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x852f…3aaebacked Over | 17c | 200.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 45c | 196.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 41c | 194.19$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.27 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb81…739ebacked Under | 46c | 192.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 192.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 56c | 160.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 60c | 140$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 132.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 44c | 120.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Over | 52c | 115.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 114.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Under | 44c | 108.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 59c | 95.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 41c | 92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Under | 45c | 91.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 53c | 56.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…64a7backed Under | 47c | 56.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Under | 45c | 54.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Over | 56c | 52.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 54c | 52.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 43c | 48.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 60c | 42.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 54c | 38.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…1100backed Under | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 61c | 31.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…1d88backed Over | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 45c | 28.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 56c | 20.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 50c | 20.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 60c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 59c | 18.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 3.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.