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NHL · resolved market

Spread: Capitals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Capitalsof Capitals, Penguins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 384 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbeb7…ca4abacked Capitals43c2,965$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.747345.2%33 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Capitals37c2,552$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.89545.3%43 W · 52 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Capitals37c2,400$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.061,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Capitals38c2,012$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.173545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+48.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9fb…8feebacked Penguins62c1,757$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.4819050.5%96 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf984…5098backed Capitals38c1,754$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.7910647.2%50 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Penguins64c1,267$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.91,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a77…4fcfbacked Capitals39c1,111$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.473650%18 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc645…e8bbbacked Capitals48c1,100$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5721668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Penguins61c1,048$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.1951550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins62c999.16$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.152,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Penguins63c931.24$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.685455.6%30 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c6…53e2backed Capitals38c770.24$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+108.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Penguins64c689.77$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.451,02853.2%547 W · 481 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Penguins62c639.01$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.8333554%181 W · 154 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Penguins62c547.23$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.281,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…bb95backed Penguins62c531.6$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a21…e443backed Penguins62c514.98$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd404…b4ebbacked Capitals37c513.42$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.921040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Penguins55c506$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.8882043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Penguins62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31016546.7%77 W · 88 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ce…9159backed Penguins62c495.44$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec3…ca43backed Penguins62c487.62$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed Capitals42c462.28$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.272839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6aa…766abacked Penguins62c456.35$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa88f…08d2backed Penguins62c456$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa59b…4046backed Penguins62c451.47$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02d…45e5backed Penguins62c450.49$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Penguins61c424.25$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.841827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-37.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d48…3e0abacked Penguins62c423.13$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Penguins59c416.8$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.892,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf065…ca70backed Penguins62c409.45$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.8620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c4c…f249backed Penguins62c405.54$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Capitals38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24876950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60c5…1c09backed Penguins62c399.67$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7cf…9202backed Penguins62c395.77$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Penguins60c387.14$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2323,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe756…69babacked Penguins62c384.04$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6454…5053backed Penguins62c383.06$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c5…9a83backed Penguins62c363.52$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Capitals40c346.62$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.551,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf102…7ebfbacked Penguins62c330.29$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick67cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c5…44fcbacked Penguins62c329.32$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee4…fbc4backed Penguins62c324.43$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe19…eeb9backed Penguins62c323$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60d…7a49backed Penguins62c321.5$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Penguins64c316.87$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.84454.5%24 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa621…042ebacked Penguins62c315.64$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53e…1cc4backed Penguins62c314$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e3…4b57backed Penguins62c313.68$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf638…04f9backed Penguins62c309.77$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5112…3dcdbacked Penguins62c307.82$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Penguins65c299.71$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.731148.2%150 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc958…ff8abacked Penguins62c299.02$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1395…a452backed Penguins62c294.14$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.37475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Penguins63c291.79$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8333950.1%170 W · 169 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Capitals38c287.4$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.192846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3892…99afbacked Penguins62c277.52$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.07366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Capitals39c277.15$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.631,43158.3%834 W · 597 L+81.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1102…49b9backed Penguins62c272.64$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4089…f46ebacked Penguins62c268.73$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71dc…cd47backed Penguins62c265.8$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfca6…56e3backed Penguins62c254.07$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick67cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1444…6dbebacked Penguins62c253.09$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9922…5310backed Penguins62c244.3$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51a6…ec26backed Penguins62c222.8$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf50…b426backed Capitals37c213.24$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.341936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x168b…11ddbacked Penguins62c203.26$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Penguins59c199.33$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.625345.5%115 W · 138 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Penguins62c196.84$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.511,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Penguins62c189.14$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2681157.2%464 W · 347 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa2…f030backed Penguins62c186.65$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc657…0a8fbacked Penguins62c185.67$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfd6…e3f3backed Penguins62c176.87$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Penguins58c176.34$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.142,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6791…7942backed Penguins62c171.99$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd22c…287dbacked Penguins64c166.27$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.22837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Capitals41c165.58$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.0631753.3%169 W · 148 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Penguins63c159.65$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.581,14051.5%587 W · 553 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8150…e38fbacked Penguins62c149.51$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9305…0fb6backed Penguins62c141.69$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa222…7d3cbacked Capitals38c137.9$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5060…0b50backed Penguins62c136.81$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked Penguins62c134.76$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5526657.9%154 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44e4…f624backed Capitals37c134.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8727957.7%161 W · 118 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b5…5b6abacked Capitals39c134.16$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.84475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+81.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31c8…1a02backed Penguins62c131.92$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Capitals38c125$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9586049.2%423 W · 437 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Penguins64c120$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.260449.2%297 W · 307 L-17.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5be…2618backed Penguins62c112.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe462…0f9bbacked Capitals38c112$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c67…1d1bbacked Capitals38c110$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe611…7130backed Capitals38c110$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8005…11c6backed Capitals38c107$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Penguins60c105$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6282353.1%437 W · 386 L+1.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a60…8b05backed Penguins62c104.56$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c3…004abacked Capitals38c104$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Penguins62c103.48$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1610240.2%41 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Penguins37c103.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1931448.7%153 W · 161 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Penguins65c101.03$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1911050.9%56 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.