Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c356859e149c21669c77e6b3e8db776d77ce4c67c864a5c5ce4e7fbfe0bf08b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moldovaof Cyprus, Moldova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c6c…4f80backed Moldova | 67c | 750.56$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.56 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Moldova | 67c | 299.98$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cyprus | 34c | 267.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cyprus | 33c | 257$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Moldova | 11c | 241.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.52 | 143 | 23.8%34 W · 109 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Moldova | 65c | 202$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 597 | 52.1%311 W · 286 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Cyprus | 33c | 166.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3f…8e8dbacked Moldova | 13c | 161.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.05 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Cyprus | 33c | 133.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Moldova | 65c | 118.37$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…e68dbacked Moldova | 15c | 106.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…ffddbacked Moldova | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 38cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Cyprus | 32c | 90.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked Cyprus | 56c | 89.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…d76fbacked Cyprus | 38c | 79.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Moldova | 70c | 57.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 328 | 55.8%183 W · 145 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cyprus | 30c | 44.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Moldova | 70c | 44.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Cyprus | 56c | 35.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cyprus | 80c | 29.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Cyprus | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Moldova | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Moldova | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 467 | 43.3%202 W · 265 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…4a6dbacked Moldova | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cyprus (-1.5)this page
- Cyprus vs. Moldova: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cyprus vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cyprus vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cyprus vs. Moldova: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cyprus vs. Moldova: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Cyprus (-2.5)Moldova won
- Spread: Moldova (-1.5)Cyprus won
- Spread: Moldova (-2.5)Cyprus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.