TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Capitals vs. Penguins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Capitalsof Capitals, Penguins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,604,561
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,793,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,604,561 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 597 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Capitals50c341,640$170,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171,182.4567051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Penguins45c313,781$141,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,638.1822443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Penguins43c218,695$94,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,010.4211644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Capitals57c140,199$79,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,285.5748549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Penguins50c138,537$69,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,048.0251550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Capitals53c103,209$54,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,936.811,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Capitals54c81,290$43,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,393.558252.4%43 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Capitals57c80,000$45,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,399.966352.4%33 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Capitals47c50,000$23,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,499.8716656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed Penguins49c44,339$21,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,578.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick48cpaid-52.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Penguins50c30,309$15,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,046.212,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Capitals57c30,000$17,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,90030944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Penguins50c29,967$14,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,871.2161950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Penguins49c29,740$14,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,564.2582043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc5…9c30backed Penguins51c25,815$13,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,165.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Capitals48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,4001,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Penguins36c18,149$6,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,534.7927448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Capitals62c16,110$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,109.874151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fb…8feebacked Capitals53c14,507$7,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,817.2519050.5%96 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Capitals54c14,262$7,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,501.8227044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Penguins40c14,020$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5508252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Capitals54c12,972$7,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,938.7420756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Penguins48c12,360$5,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,991.2812047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Penguins47c11,111$5,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,222.1775251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Penguins45c11,000$4,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,939.9929146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Penguins37c10,816$3,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,967.0538551.4%198 W · 187 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Penguins53c10,616$5,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,626.3714553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Capitals57c10,324$5,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,439.324546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e57…a116backed Penguins0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Penguins49c9,358$4,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,582.042,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Capitals57c9,207$5,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,934.3240356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Capitals53c8,868$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,167.9250049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Penguins53c8,000$4,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,24031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Capitals59c6,400$3,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6245276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+42.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Penguins49c6,180$3,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,028.210066%66 W · 34 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2305…0acebacked Capitals53c6,137$3,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,882.24850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Capitals57c6,000$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,579.8831550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39eb…0e4cbacked Capitals59c5,898$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,397.971346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Capitals54c5,602$3,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,580.831,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Penguins49c5,544$2,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,704.8911153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…2075backed Capitals53c5,479$2,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,575.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Penguins41c5,030$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,062.181,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Penguins51c4,943$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.3689249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins42c4,901$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.972,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Penguins49c4,672$2,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,274.259450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Capitals64c4,323$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.8433234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Penguins31c4,288$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.632,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Penguins52c4,055$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.8560249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Penguins52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Penguins52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Capitals47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.9930552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb603…754bbacked Capitals45c3,946$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170.33740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Capitals53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.588543.5%37 W · 48 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Penguins42c3,750$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.0138849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Capitals53c3,704$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.773647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Penguins37c3,578$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.541,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Penguins53c3,560$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.83548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Penguins52c3,500$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8209751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Penguins44c3,407$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.553,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Capitals69c3,370$2,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.3440351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ea…476cbacked Capitals60c3,333$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.332979.3%23 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Capitals75c3,025$2,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.0413850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Capitals57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd74…888dbacked Capitals44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6802445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Penguins49c2,909$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.3318853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db3…8b52backed Penguins5c2,851$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.541136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Capitals59c2,841$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.32,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Penguins53c2,791$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47985250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c5b…9edcbacked Capitals58c2,789$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.383100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Penguins35c2,555$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.2116446.3%76 W · 88 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bca…0d11backed Penguins49c2,535$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.981553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Penguins43c2,500$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07531848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Penguins47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.9716546.7%77 W · 88 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ca…6ae0backed Capitals57c2,473$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Penguins49c2,457$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2043641.7%15 W · 21 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0140…9510backed Penguins41c2,439$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-48.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Penguins34c2,324$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.7637754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Penguins53c2,321$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2307054.3%38 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Penguins41c2,251$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.1733450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Penguins50c2,195$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.121,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7f…3223backed Penguins53c2,151$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.146650%33 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Capitals45c2,109$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.0725447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Penguins30c2,108$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.0214946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Penguins51c2,005$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.7820450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Penguins49c2,004$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.969545.3%43 W · 52 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Capitals57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86044551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed Penguins53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0601643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x820a…ca12backed Capitals60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8002263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Penguins52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.9526750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Penguins49c1,967$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.149038.9%35 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ad6…0c7abacked Penguins43c1,949$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.07475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+57.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7df…abe9backed Capitals48c1,899$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…22e8backed Penguins53c1,899$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+42.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Capitals57c1,860$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.8561959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Capitals54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.852867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3bc…bf85backed Capitals46c1,837$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.18560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97a5…134abacked Penguins55c1,837$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.5540%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Penguins47c1,821$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.9376950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed Capitals58c1,810$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.345255.8%29 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…30c9backed Penguins44c1,781$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.