NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5253c1f4812959824d91a1aeb390ea5a0ec3d6316a93346c31979e1688fd13c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Over | 60c | 999.99$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 40c | 997.86$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.23 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 61c | 790.37$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.23 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 17c | 573.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 14c | 425.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 61c | 420$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 55c | 255.3$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.88 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 210$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…616dbacked Under | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 45c | 143$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Under | 42c | 134.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 17c | 58.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56f…bdaabacked Under | 18c | 55.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Under | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5this page
- Capitals vs. PenguinsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.