NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd097336b964d5889d1a7528c5fdfff7eb272dec3eca999d1f0a5266d9164aa83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Penguins, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Penguins | 25c | 2,500$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Penguins | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.99 | 254 | 46.5%118 W · 136 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Capitals | 67c | 999.1$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.86 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Capitals | 69c | 981.4$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.23 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Capitals | 68c | 865.41$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.93 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Capitals | 73c | 673.84$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.94 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Penguins | 21c | 595$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 26c | 433.37$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.56 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Capitals | 71c | 423.41$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Capitals | 69c | 298.69$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Capitals | 66c | 236.01$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Capitals | 66c | 234.96$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Capitals | 74c | 214.17$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…c2c2backed Penguins | 34c | 211.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 68c | 173.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Capitals | 73c | 131.53$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Penguins | 21c | 130.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Penguins | 32c | 127.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe96b…eb54backed Penguins | 26c | 121.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Capitals | 67c | 111.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Capitals | 66c | 88.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Capitals | 75c | 85.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Penguins | 27c | 82.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Capitals | 69c | 72.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…64a7backed Penguins | 31c | 72.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Penguins | 27c | 66.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Capitals | 68c | 63.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf50…b426backed Penguins | 24c | 60.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Capitals | 67c | 58.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Capitals | 68c | 56.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Penguins | 25c | 55.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Capitals | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Capitals | 69c | 49.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Capitals | 68c | 43.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Capitals | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Capitals | 69c | 39.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…a8ebbacked Penguins | 31c | 35.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f23…7333backed Penguins | 31c | 35.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Capitals | 72c | 32.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 68c | 30.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Capitals | 79c | 29.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Capitals | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Capitals | 74c | 28.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Capitals | 75c | 28.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Capitals | 68c | 20.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. PenguinsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.