NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc32c5ed9d5fe62a88a42aa9edfecbb5ba3698360bf309f6bf7bbf3ab139b9c56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 72c | 1,045$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 792.9$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.89 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 35c | 340.29$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.29 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 65c | 330.29$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.69 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 66c | 299.56$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.62 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 25c | 215.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.71 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 66c | 214.71$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.71 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 34c | 214.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.71 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 44c | 148.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…616dbacked Under | 77c | 129.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 68c | 104.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a60fbacked Over | 29c | 73.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 60.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 58c | 50.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 136 | 52.9%72 W · 64 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 24c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 40.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 52c | 38.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Under | 77c | 30.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 71c | 25.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…bac1backed Under | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a00…a1f4backed Under | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…e45cbacked Under | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f2…2919backed Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x618b…d33fbacked Under | 71c | 14.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…0ac6backed Under | 75c | 13.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5this page
- Capitals vs. PenguinsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.