NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe15d63f3cbd3b9a58f8e22a2625e67f996308443b14cccfa6ffe7149a23c0162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 39c | 1,357$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 1,053$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.57 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 66c | 833.33$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 34c | 576.4$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 37c | 486.39$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.96 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Under | 51c | 414.08$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…7f02backed Over | 61c | 330$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 286.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 46c | 283$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.87 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 259.4$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.74 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 58c | 256.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 55c | 239.33$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Over | 45c | 222.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Under | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 65c | 180$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 40c | 166.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7b98backed Over | 63c | 155.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…616dbacked Under | 39c | 154.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Over | 65c | 153.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Under | 36c | 151$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Over | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 66c | 115$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Over | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 64c | 94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 55c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 58c | 65.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Over | 60c | 64.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 66c | 54.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 63c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 58c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 56c | 38.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 66c | 35.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. PenguinsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.