MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x086bbc0013feba853e17aa4196ab436ad109d18fa5d6b672a8000461e4c2ac75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 54c | 18,053$9,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,304.27 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Over | 46c | 14,044$6,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,459.61 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7e…5fddbacked Over | 45c | 6,417$2,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,887.74 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 55c | 3,641$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.5 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…2a6fbacked Over | 46c | 2,453$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 46c | 1,555$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.3 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.92 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 1,198$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 1,120$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 52c | 999.93$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.96 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 993.12$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.66 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 48c | 980.1$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.65 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 55c | 893.24$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.77 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 31c | 756.85$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.57 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 683.69$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 47c | 358.04$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.37 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 55c | 313.46$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.06 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Over | 46c | 280.75$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.15 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 42c | 204.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.88 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 188.41$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.46 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 55c | 179.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Under | 55c | 179.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 55c | 179.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Under | 52c | 152.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 52c | 116.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 107.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 44c | 102.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 56c | 83.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 52c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…f1c6backed Over | 47c | 71.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 48c | 64.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 44c | 61.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 55c | 54.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 48c | 50.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…731cbacked Over | 44c | 49.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 45c | 48.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Over | 45c | 43.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 55c | 40.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 52c | 39.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 39c | 38.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Under | 45c | 38.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 51c | 33.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 32.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Over | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 61c | 29.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…9341backed Over | 46c | 28.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 61c | 25.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 55c | 20.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 53c | 19.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 52c | 19.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58fc…0752backed Over | 52c | 19.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 55c | 18.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore OriolesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.