MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x967273951e50d51fcbae452cd019b03a0fee7d26ab28bc2c7f28b9d78eb2dfea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 57c | 3,917$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,232.68 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Under | 43c | 3,247$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.97 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 57c | 1,222$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.39 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 57c | 972.87$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.54 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 893.29$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 43c | 463.09$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.96 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 38c | 405.07$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.06 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 397.3$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.33 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 71c | 318.25$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 43c | 285.97$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.23 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…cb00backed Over | 26c | 193.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 56c | 187.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 44c | 134.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 56c | 129.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 44c | 119.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 43c | 116.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 43c | 86.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 58c | 85.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 61c | 85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 43c | 77.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Under | 43c | 69.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 42c | 62.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 63c | 59.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Under | 43c | 57.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 27c | 40.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 44c | 39.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 43c | 38.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Under | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 44c | 26.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 76c | 26.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 63c | 24.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore OriolesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.