MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17b1675d7aff000530b09380dd11a06e3cc7143108d661cd053863cf25ec605b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 998.26$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.91 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 50c | 973.76$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.39 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Texas Rangers | 48c | 379.31$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.93 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Texas Rangers | 69c | 320.2$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.26 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…80ebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 318.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed Texas Rangers | 72c | 272.77$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 209.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.68 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Texas Rangers | 38c | 197.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.25 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Texas Rangers | 65c | 196.2$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 151.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 149.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 111.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 1,875 | 52.1%976 W · 899 L | +52.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 83.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Texas Rangers | 36c | 67.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 67.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 62.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…4a6dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 35.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 31.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Texas Rangers | 52c | 28.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,039 | 58.3%606 W · 433 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…c619backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 28.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 27.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 24.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texas Rangers | 76c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore OriolesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.