MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04f619a9fc3246f8f8f29f952bac6d7803f1634510049ffec72779be86306e61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Yes | 53c | 55,818$29,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,562.15 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed No | 47c | 54,000$25,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,620 | 310 | 39%121 W · 189 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed No | 48c | 1,260$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.06 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 48c | 895.47$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.28 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 76c | 270.01$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed No | 47c | 260$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…b596backed Yes | 51c | 192.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 49c | 175$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e95…c57bbacked No | 51c | 106.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Yes | 52c | 98.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed No | 51c | 90.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 50c | 59.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…ac42backed No | 51c | 54.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x563d…0f60backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed No | 50c | 49.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149b…0ca8backed Yes | 51c | 38.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked No | 49c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 70c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Oriolesthis page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore OriolesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.