MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84a700f414d814a428f5faef9857f395ea104ac221e234beb1b5edcaf36253a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 51c | 10,848$5,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,532.36 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 7,527$3,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,838.58 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92fc…2f25backed Over | 49c | 4,098$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,089.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 3,926$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.33 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 54c | 2,223$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 49c | 2,006$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.1 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 1,837$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.73 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 1,214$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.84 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 927.18$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 876.98$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.26 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 49c | 556.22$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.67 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 49c | 476.51$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.02 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 49c | 476.51$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.02 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 429.29$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 49c | 412$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.12 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 49c | 297.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.66 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Over | 49c | 259.42$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.31 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 49c | 222.47$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.46 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 51c | 221.65$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 51c | 197.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed Under | 54c | 185.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 185$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 20c | 181.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 175$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 51c | 115.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 53c | 79.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Under | 53c | 79.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 48c | 77.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Under | 51c | 62.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 61.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…71cebacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Under | 53c | 49.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 43.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…747cbacked Under | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -8.1wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 49c | 27.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- NRFI: Athletics vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.