MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70fc595a69b77ac5ed24007d2e65ae6ac2fc9ebf60c93ac3278fef6d5e13a44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Toronto Blue Jays, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fd2…1c0cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 21,330$10,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,091 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Athletics | 52c | 5,420$2,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,601.6 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Athletics | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.99 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Athletics | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 2,363$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.64 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 75c | 1,596$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 1,326$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.69 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 53c | 1,302$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Athletics | 53c | 1,172$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.77 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 1,075$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b54…d382backed Athletics | 58c | 408.83$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.47 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Athletics | 76c | 399.21$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Athletics | 76c | 398.37$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 397.21$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.74 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03c…b352backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Toronto Blue Jays | 14c | 211.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Athletics | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Athletics | 75c | 133.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2857…3e27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 128.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Athletics | 68c | 110.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 108.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…3059backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 107.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 101.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 94.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed Athletics | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…0ce3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 86.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Athletics | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…fed3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 60.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Athletics | 56c | 53.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…64b7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 48.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Athletics | 52c | 47.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 40.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Athletics | 55c | 38.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 36.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b67…92c9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Athletics | 72c | 34.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Athletics | 75c | 33.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Athletics | 56c | 30.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Athletics | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…3699backed Athletics | 57c | 29.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…3c7bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 28.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Athletics | 74c | 27.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 26.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b21…05ecbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Athletics | 68c | 21.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.36per pick | 54cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4e…34ffbacked Athletics | 59c | 17.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Athletics | 72c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Athletics | 76c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- NRFI: Athletics vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.