MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8a12af964c60be926c6c67194a2150b5e53d2b55cf252ba17865d370e1ccd06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.99 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.99 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 52c | 2,450$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Over | 48c | 1,148$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 52c | 1,050$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.99 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 48c | 971.93$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.53 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 48c | 765$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.25 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Over | 31c | 700$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 589.62$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 329.02$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.46 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 212.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Over | 48c | 206$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9175…bd29backed Under | 49c | 157.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 156.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 149.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91a…4ea7backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…4740backed Over | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 51c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 49c | 76.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 48c | 75.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 51c | 68.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 63.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Under | 51c | 62.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 48c | 53.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 52c | 32.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 52c | 32.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 52c | 22.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 661 | 59.5%393 W · 268 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Under | 54c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsYes won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.