MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ed61768b07ba989e45d32cee76f045532dedf1000be29ff89b8dbd77d20fa57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 42c | 3,689$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.37 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,481$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 42c | 625$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a07…3a75backed Over | 15c | 428.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 60c | 245.84$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 60c | 243.61$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 58c | 231.35$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 58c | 183.91$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.24 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 41c | 125.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 40c | 120.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 40c | 81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 41c | 81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 42c | 66.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 42c | 66.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 42c | 66.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 42c | 66.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Over | 40c | 61.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 41c | 58.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsYes won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.