MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b0a17b8b0c1c73be25023ec43838cb2430c77d72cc38ed8e33c3951c8ecdff0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226b…cad6backed New York Mets | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 4,698$2,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,725 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,777$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.12 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed New York Mets | 43c | 1,587$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.82 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 380.94$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 354.2$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.35 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 337.65$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.27 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked New York Mets | 43c | 332.56$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.56 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 330.23$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed New York Mets | 27c | 310$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.5 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked New York Mets | 41c | 151.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New York Mets | 41c | 108.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Mets | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked New York Mets | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed New York Mets | 20c | 92.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 79.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f3…c784backed New York Mets | 27c | 74.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed New York Mets | 41c | 73.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 40.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…7645backed New York Mets | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York Mets | 33c | 30.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed New York Mets | 72c | 27.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…e9b9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsYes won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.