MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342464e90bb7cf6073287a664d0661f4a1d694fe71300239bd7262f9ce4c62ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Over | 45c | 11,110$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,110.5 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 55c | 9,308$5,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,119.19 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Under | 56c | 7,189$4,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,027.48 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 5,053$2,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,782.43 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 55c | 5,000$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.99 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Over | 45c | 4,400$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,420 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 3,594$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.17 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.15 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 995.36$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 43c | 838.82$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.13 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 45c | 681.99$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.09 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 55c | 422.48$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.36 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 44c | 409.09$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.09 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…6866backed Under | 57c | 350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Under | 39c | 333$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 324.01$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 213.24$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.42 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 44c | 191$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 58c | 181.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 61c | 177.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 45c | 118.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fd1ebacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362b…04e2backed Under | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Over | 42c | 58.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…ff08backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f2…000ebacked Over | 42c | 50.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 79c | 45.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a06dbacked Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe725…2b00backed Over | 44c | 42.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 58c | 37.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 55c | 33.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 56c | 30.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 55c | 29.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b1…315abacked Over | 45c | 26.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…2c6fbacked Under | 57c | 20.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 58c | 19.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…5c19backed Under | 56c | 19.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a73…de17backed Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 55c | 19.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsNo won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.