MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcdd8bc2f5d142751c36b6dcc6d13c92d122ebb13c59a70b77a09b941bd2841a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 3,241$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.2 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked New York Mets | 42c | 2,112$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.38 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed New York Mets | 34c | 913.24$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.73 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 65c | 485.99$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.86 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 54c | 450.28$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed New York Mets | 46c | 289.17$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0266…5febbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 23c | 202.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked New York Mets | 66c | 151.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 147.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 63c | 141.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed New York Mets | 71c | 91.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 78.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed New York Mets | 73c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 68.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…ada9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 47.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -9.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked New York Mets | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…e433backed New York Mets | 46c | 42.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…041ebacked New York Mets | 47c | 38.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked New York Mets | 46c | 33.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1259backed New York Mets | 46c | 33.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…67a8backed New York Mets | 46c | 33.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…077dbacked New York Mets | 46c | 33.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked New York Mets | 46c | 33.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d7…f8fbbacked New York Mets | 66c | 31.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets | 65c | 27.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed New York Mets | 46c | 25.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…7e25backed New York Mets | 46c | 25.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed New York Mets | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsNo won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.