MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x308e4d6e6a022fde2b3189667052188cd2fe3ba92596b4053ebdb688b11f2903
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Yes | 68c | 50,056$33,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,988.93 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed No | 32c | 34,069$10,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,166.75 | 310 | 39%121 W · 189 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked No | 40c | 15,063$6,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000.73 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed No | 35c | 3,700$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,420.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 32c | 2,875$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.4 | 171 | 56.1%96 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc765…9322backed Yes | 62c | 2,437$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 66c | 2,217$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.1 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed No | 38c | 1,777$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.3 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Yes | 62c | 1,592$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.08 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed No | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…6dc8backed No | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 64c | 963.7$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.77 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Yes | 62c | 829.33$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.19 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Yes | 62c | 603.85$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.39 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 38c | 548$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.06 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Yes | 63c | 271$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.73 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 65c | 264.53$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.01 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 34c | 242.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.92 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…5169backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +10.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed No | 37c | 133.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed No | 38c | 122.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…6df7backed Yes | 62c | 91.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Yes | 63c | 71.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ad…4c1fbacked Yes | 60c | 60.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -55%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked No | 38c | 52.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…ada9backed No | 32c | 41.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Yes | 62c | 38.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…a64fbacked Yes | 60c | 33.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6855…ba24backed No | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 63c | 32.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfca8…2058backed No | 37c | 32.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Yes | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 68c | 19.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Metsthis page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.