TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,160,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,262,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,160,709 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 962 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Pistons52c500,228$259,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241,080.2772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Pelicans48c402,762$193,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193,325.8826253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ec3…3cdcbacked Pistons50c173,603$86,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,801.632650%13 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans50c149,271$74,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,549.831,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa20b…df6ebacked Pelicans50c123,030$61,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,514.86742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce75…c5f6backed Pistons50c98,893$49,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,446.321070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans2c61,075$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.424,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Pistons53c60,524$32,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,447.587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans49c48,043$23,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,444.944,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Pistons52c47,685$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,684.6236549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa729…9326backed Pistons50c42,500$21,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,2504949%24 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Pelicans47c35,829$16,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,839.6766248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339b…3c2dbacked Pistons50c34,472$17,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,236475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Pistons51c32,423$16,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,894.041,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ad…0f2cbacked Pistons50c31,129$15,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,564.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Pistons49c29,411$14,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,999.6136359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed86…7240backed Pistons50c28,841$14,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,420.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe153…e415backed Pistons50c28,622$14,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,3111560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9750…263dbacked Pelicans35c25,967$9,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,2001526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7569…8e53backed Pelicans50c25,049$12,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,524.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons49c25,031$12,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,864.436,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1227…9237backed Pelicans50c23,660$11,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,830475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdfe…fd89backed Pelicans50c23,608$11,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,804366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9e5…3c6cbacked Pistons50c23,530$11,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,7654100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c32…a114backed Pistons50c23,443$11,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,721.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa175…065dbacked Pistons50c22,883$11,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,441.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x169d…7102backed Pistons50c21,941$10,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,970.57100%7 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf9ae…275dbacked Pelicans50c21,650$10,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,825475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x929e…f3b8backed Pelicans50c21,609$10,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,804.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdc0…5b13backed Pelicans50c21,492$10,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,746580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x562f…9c04backed Pistons50c21,434$10,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,7174100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+81.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Pistons50c21,368$10,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,642.691,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02d…45e5backed Pelicans50c21,335$10,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,667.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dbe…41e9backed Pelicans50c21,326$10,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,663683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef0…62fdbacked Pelicans50c21,026$10,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,513850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba0…52cabacked Pistons50c20,877$10,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,438.5887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+69.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f59…1176backed Pelicans50c20,155$10,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,077.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Pelicans48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60032846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6129…0bdebacked Pelicans50c18,961$9,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,480.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x251c…c534backed Pelicans50c17,311$8,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,655.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8c…75b8backed Pelicans50c17,281$8,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,640.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5be…2618backed Pelicans50c17,173$8,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,586.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4d…f436backed Pelicans50c17,112$8,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,556450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf6…64f1backed Pelicans50c16,594$8,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,297757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x523e…c29abacked Pelicans50c16,032$8,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0161266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab7…7655backed Pelicans50c15,093$7,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,546.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+38.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d2…5f41backed Pelicans50c10,996$5,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,498771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+39.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5db5…1a50backed Pelicans49c10,204$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…515bbacked Pelicans50c9,858$4,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,929540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeaa…ccddbacked Pelicans50c9,803$4,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,901.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pistons50c9,468$4,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,766.964,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8339…f5c8backed Pelicans50c8,931$4,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,465.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf38c…e580backed Pelicans50c8,861$4,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,430.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f1f…5192backed Pistons50c8,857$4,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,428.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Pistons48c8,796$4,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,573.6887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e9…d05abacked Pistons50c8,624$4,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,312580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+49.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56e8…5ee9backed Pistons50c8,610$4,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,305475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1439…00debacked Pistons50c8,404$4,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,201.881070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+35.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9399…bd50backed Pelicans50c8,351$4,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,175.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b2…7d9dbacked Pelicans50c8,186$4,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,093966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8aeebacked Pistons50c8,182$4,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,091580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+46.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9db3…9fbbbacked Pistons50c7,894$3,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,947580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+43.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Pelicans50c7,865$3,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,932.654254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd3…ece7backed Pistons50c7,388$3,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,694475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x368f…fe1bbacked Pistons50c7,344$3,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,672560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0250…1558backed Pistons50c7,321$3,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,660.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79bb…e960backed Pistons50c7,211$3,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,605.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+58.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5945…67cabacked Pelicans49c7,111$3,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,484.392133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Pistons49c6,239$3,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,181.8958449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x549d…9e2cbacked Pelicans50c6,070$3,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,035450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32dd…c881backed Pistons50c6,060$3,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0301154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Pelicans52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1207240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Pistons48c5,828$2,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,020.462,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef99…ef8dbacked Pelicans51c5,704$2,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,909.289952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46c…f070backed Pelicans48c5,701$2,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,736.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4d4…050bbacked Pistons50c5,590$2,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7952100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacdc…d2e1backed Pelicans50c5,589$2,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d7…579ebacked Pelicans48c5,576$2,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,676.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Pelicans51c5,490$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80018349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca13…a3eebacked Pistons50c5,292$2,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,646666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c22…ae4ebacked Pistons50c5,267$2,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,633.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pistons49c5,257$2,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,662.072,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca81…d140backed Pistons50c5,202$2,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,601683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+69.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd84a…0824backed Pistons50c5,196$2,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,598475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…aaa0backed Pistons50c5,191$2,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,595.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44ce…2353backed Pelicans50c5,130$2,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,565250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa193…1735backed Pelicans50c5,114$2,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,557250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd50…b86abacked Pelicans50c5,085$2,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,542.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c5…1b59backed Pelicans50c5,082$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb09d…a5e7backed Pistons50c5,073$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,536.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Pelicans48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x447c…767ebacked Pelicans48c4,974$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,387.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f97…ef6bbacked Pistons50c4,963$2,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick51cpaid+48.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfef5…4ba6backed Pelicans50c4,846$2,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4231266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb378…f69ebacked Pistons50c4,778$2,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,389666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd95f…4677backed Pelicans50c4,679$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c2f…adb0backed Pistons50c4,676$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,338771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick42cpaid+40.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pelicans48c4,674$2,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.052,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc45…0eb2backed Pelicans50c4,669$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbdc…ff57backed Pistons50c4,637$2,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,318.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.