TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,942
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,942 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01b4…372ebacked Yes1c8,000$80 inLost-$8029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5886…fe3bbacked Yes1c5,000$70 inLost-$70170%0 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x929e…1715backed Yes2c2,300$53 inLost-$53933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+96.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4a4…ebccbacked Yes2c2,300$53 inLost-$53119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac5e…87d1backed Yes1c1,300$13 inLost-$13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Yes1c1,300$16 inLost-$16551.8%1 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid+81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Yes1c1,000$13 inLost-$13802.5%2 W · 78 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-88.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked Yes7c733$55 inLost-$54.6111538.3%44 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x917d…9429backed Yes7c733$55 inLost-$54.614146.3%19 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No75c700$525 inWon+$17565762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes25c631.98$155 inLost-$155.231,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ce2…4b11backed Yes5c450$24 inLost-$244445.5%20 W · 24 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Yes5c240$13 inLost-$12.823441.5%97 W · 137 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Yes24c217.39$52 inLost-$52.171,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Yes7c200$14 inLost-$1417748%85 W · 92 L+16.4wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked No76c109.99$84 inWon+$26.427074.1%200 W · 70 L+30.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Yes26c60$16 inLost-$15.630256.6%171 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes26c59.12$15 inLost-$15.3792058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes26c42$11 inLost-$10.924,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.