NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43dbdddd9c2bf3bbc4a0d1a897c78cc73a0c422df20ac0303e6aab40b7c23eb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Senators, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,476,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,791,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,476,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 972 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bec…b215backed Lightning | 56c | 395,393$222,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172,733.15 | 164 | 42.7%70 W · 94 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Senators | 43c | 258,426$111,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111,123.08 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Senators | 45c | 166,565$74,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74,404.44 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Lightning | 57c | 138,283$78,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,844.52 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Senators | 43c | 99,611$42,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,827.84 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…4654backed Senators | 41c | 72,557$29,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,748.41 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a3…1943backed Senators | 43c | 20,000$8,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,600 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Lightning | 55c | 19,380$10,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,730.54 | 274 | 48.9%134 W · 140 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Senators | 44c | 11,968$5,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,266 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Senators | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.97 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe262…ac17backed Lightning | 59c | 9,712$5,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,981.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Senators | 49c | 9,368$4,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,624.1 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f8…6699backed Lightning | 59c | 8,911$5,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…1366backed Senators | 42c | 8,911$3,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,742.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning | 57c | 7,965$4,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,421.73 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Senators | 44c | 7,955$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Senators | 43c | 7,501$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,225.38 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Lightning | 58c | 7,310$4,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,070.2 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning | 59c | 6,900$4,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lightning | 57c | 6,286$3,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,703.1 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…ce60backed Lightning | 59c | 6,198$3,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,541.06 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Lightning | 59c | 6,100$3,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,501 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Lightning | 59c | 6,000$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Senators | 43c | 5,587$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.69 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Lightning | 59c | 5,400$3,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226 | 435 | 48.5%211 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Lightning | 58c | 5,105$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc7…4003backed Senators | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Senators | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning | 59c | 4,600$2,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Senators | 44c | 4,545$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607d…53a1backed Senators | 44c | 4,545$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Senators | 75c | 4,504$3,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,375.58 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…ffbbbacked Lightning | 56c | 4,281$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Senators | 43c | 4,200$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lightning | 58c | 4,121$2,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.76 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Senators | 44c | 4,103$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.75 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Senators | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Lightning | 56c | 3,837$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.5 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning | 58c | 3,762$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.79 | 619 | 50.1%310 W · 309 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Senators | 21c | 3,694$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.19 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Senators | 76c | 3,635$2,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,765 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Senators | 41c | 3,622$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.14 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Lightning | 56c | 3,500$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.06 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Lightning | 59c | 3,500$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435 | 278 | 50.4%140 W · 138 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Lightning | 58c | 3,467$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.06 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 46c | 3,458$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,870.64 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Senators | 44c | 3,430$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.2 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Senators | 41c | 3,333$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.4 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5761…2923backed Senators | 42c | 3,240$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lightning | 38c | 3,169$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.11 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Senators | 45c | 3,134$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…8ef2backed Lightning | 58c | 3,100$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Senators | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Senators | 57c | 2,991$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.71 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Lightning | 41c | 2,802$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.46 | 332 | 34.3%114 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…6dc8backed Lightning | 59c | 2,721$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.83 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Lightning | 45c | 2,691$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.31 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…3ad0backed Lightning | 58c | 2,600$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Lightning | 46c | 2,557$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f0…8266backed Lightning | 57c | 2,518$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Lightning | 39c | 2,508$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.72 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6475…3b04backed Lightning | 57c | 2,480$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9601…06f5backed Senators | 42c | 2,460$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Lightning | 58c | 2,379$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.31 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…b002backed Lightning | 58c | 2,285$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.54 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…dcf1backed Lightning | 57c | 2,274$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Senators | 43c | 2,222$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.46 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning | 59c | 2,186$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.09 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Lightning | 58c | 2,130$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.55 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Lightning | 57c | 2,128$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.55 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…5098backed Senators | 48c | 2,100$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Senators | 70c | 2,007$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.99 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 53c | 1,659$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.87 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Senators | 43c | 1,654$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.46 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed Senators | 44c | 1,557$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.21 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Lightning | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.99 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Lightning | 36c | 1,460$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.67 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d9…41c7backed Senators | 44c | 1,439$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Lightning | 34c | 1,403$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.63 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Senators | 41c | 1,385$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Lightning | 55c | 1,362$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.92 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Lightning | 59c | 1,250$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.5 | 457 | 49.2%225 W · 232 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…2270backed Senators | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…6567backed Senators | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…7e45backed Lightning | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…0f99backed Lightning | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…56cfbacked Lightning | 57c | 1,195$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…53f0backed Lightning | 57c | 1,195$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.85 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…b30fbacked Senators | 43c | 1,195$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…bac5backed Senators | 43c | 1,195$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…b72dbacked Lightning | 57c | 1,195$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.85 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d11…1931backed Senators | 43c | 1,195$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.85 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…e1b4backed Senators | 43c | 1,195$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…d46abacked Lightning | 57c | 1,195$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.85 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Lightning | 57c | 1,193$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.99 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6457…9ccfbacked Lightning | 58c | 1,192$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.34 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…12bcbacked Lightning | 57c | 1,185$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22c…ae5abacked Lightning | 57c | 1,185$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…844bbacked Senators | 43c | 1,185$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70da…4221backed Lightning | 57c | 1,185$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.55 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Lightningthis page
- Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.