NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf4171f5b3d8129131deb2fa0bc305fe9fb9c516e64f680ae18cbbf824f9f49c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 35c | 1,200$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.96 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Lightning | 35c | 905.97$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.94 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Lightning | 38c | 654.38$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.38 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Senators | 58c | 443.38$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.16 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Senators | 65c | 424.24$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.76 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed Lightning | 45c | 414.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.4 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Senators | 65c | 381.97$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Senators | 65c | 294$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Senators | 36c | 277.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Senators | 66c | 273$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.46 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Lightning | 44c | 266.93$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.15 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Senators | 57c | 230$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Senators | 68c | 216.22$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.21 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Senators | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lightning | 50c | 164.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Senators | 33c | 149.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Senators | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Lightning | 39c | 103.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Lightning | 19c | 87.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Senators | 56c | 87.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Senators | 65c | 78.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Senators | 61c | 75.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Senators | 71c | 71.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Senators | 67c | 61.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Senators | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Senators | 64c | 54.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Lightning | 21c | 54.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Senators | 71c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Lightning | 53c | 43.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Lightning | 58c | 40.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Senators | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Senators | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Senators | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Senators | 64c | 33.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Senators | 78c | 33.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Senators | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Lightning | 33c | 31.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Senators | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Senators | 64c | 31.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Senators | 74c | 29.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Senators | 62c | 27.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Senators | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Senators | 64c | 21.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Senators | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Senators | 75c | 15.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Senators vs. LightningLightning won
- Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.